NBA games

IND @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
104–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND28352516104
SA39273532133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (SA) / 3 (IND) games this season
IND away
home SA
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Nesmith S 18 12 1 3
Bennedict Mathurin S 18 11 4 0
Cameron Payne 15 10 1 2
Andrew Nembhard S 18 10 2 5
Jay Huff 14 9 5 1
Taelon Peter 22 9 5 4
Pascal Siakam S 18 9 2 4
Isaiah Jackson S 15 8 2 0
James Wiseman 19 6 2 0
Gabe McGlothan 20 5 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 24 17 12 1
Stephon Castle S 25 16 2 9
Julian Champagnie S 23 15 3 0
Luke Kornet 21 15 6 0
Keldon Johnson 17 12 1 1
Micah Potter 10 11 0 0
Devin Vassell S 23 10 3 4
Harrison Barnes S 21 9 1 2
Stanley Umude 10 8 3 1
Carter Bryant 21 7 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephon Castle · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes dunk (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
22%
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND
22%
3 Devin Vassell SA
18%
4 Harrison Barnes SA
13%
5 Isaiah Jackson IND
12%
6 Julian Champagnie SA
11%
7 Taelon Peter IND
0%
8 Obi Toppin IND
0%
9 RayJ Dennis IND
0%
10 Jalen Slawson IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
20%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 21.5 8.5 4.1
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND 17.5 4.6 1.4
3 Keldon Johnson SA 13.7 4.1 0.9
4 Devin Vassell SA 12.9 4.8 2.3
5 Luke Kornet SA 10.9 6.9 1.7
6 Julian Champagnie SA 10.6 2.7 1.8
7 Taelon Peter IND 9.5 3.9 2.5
8 Carter Bryant SA 8.0 2.7 0.8
9 RayJ Dennis IND 7.3 0.8 3.1
10 David Jones Garcia SA 7.3 2.8 2.1
11 Obi Toppin IND 6.2 2.8 2.0
12 Lindy Waters III SA 5.0 1.6 1.1
13 Harrison Barnes SA 4.8 2.1 1.8
14 Jay Huff IND 4.6 2.2 0.7
15 Gabe McGlothan IND 4.3 3.3 0.9
16 James Wiseman IND 4.2 2.7 0.6
17 Jalen Slawson IND 3.8 3.3 0.9
18 Harrison Ingram SA 3.7 2.6 0.5
19 Stanley Umude SA 3.5 1.0 0.4
20 Bismack Biyombo SA 3.0 2.5 0.2
21 Micah Potter SA 2.7 1.6 0.4
22 Riley Minix SA 2.3 1.0 1.2
23 Isaiah Jackson IND 2.2 2.4 0.5
24 Tony Bradley IND 1.7 2.2 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.