NBA games

DEN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
91–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN2138161691
OKC2224202894

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (OKC) / 4 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home OKC
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Peyton Watson S 25 15 6 4
Julian Strawther 18 14 3 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 22 13 3 1
Jalen Pickett 25 12 1 4
Bruce Brown S 25 10 5 2
Cameron Johnson S 25 9 6 4
Jonas Valanciunas S 21 5 5 2
Zeke Nnaji 21 5 3 0
Tamar Bates 6 3 0 0
Curtis Jones 8 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ousmane Dieng 20 17 4 1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 18 12 4 5
Cason Wallace 19 10 4 2
Chet Holmgren S 19 9 6 3
Luguentz Dort S 19 8 2 0
Jaylin Williams 20 8 7 2
Branden Carlson 15 7 5 1
Malevy Leons 13 7 3 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 16 6 3 1
Chris Youngblood 23 5 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes alley oop dunk shot (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cason Wallace OKC
54%
2 Cameron Johnson DEN
40%
3 Ousmane Dieng OKC
0%
4 Chris Youngblood OKC
0%
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN
0%
6 Bruce Brown DEN
0%
7 Hunter Tyson DEN
0%
8 Zeke Nnaji DEN
0%
9 DaRon Holmes II DEN
0%
10 Spencer Jones DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
41%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
18%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Aaron Wiggins OKC 14.2 4.5 4.9
2 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 12.0 6.5 2.0
3 Jaylin Williams OKC 11.0 4.0 1.8
4 Ousmane Dieng OKC 11.0 5.1 3.7
5 Chris Youngblood OKC 11.0 2.6 1.8
6 Cason Wallace OKC 8.7 4.6 4.8
7 Peyton Watson DEN 8.2 3.7 1.5
8 Jazian Gortman OKC 8.2 2.1 1.8
9 Cameron Johnson DEN 7.9 2.5 1.1
10 Malevy Leons OKC 7.8 4.5 1.2
11 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.2 4.6 1.5
12 Julian Strawther DEN 6.3 3.5 0.9
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 6.0 1.9 1.4
14 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.2 2.1 1.2
15 Bruce Brown DEN 5.1 2.4 1.4
16 Zack Austin OKC 5.0 2.5 0.5
17 Curtis Jones DEN 4.4 1.3 1.3
18 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.0 1.5 1.0
19 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.9 1.3 0.7
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.3 2.2 0.7
21 Spencer Jones DEN 2.7 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.