NBA games

MEM @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
141–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM29353839141
MIA32363522125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (MIA) / 4 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIA
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Wells S 22 21 4 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 26 16 3 2
Javon Small 21 16 1 5
GG Jackson 12 13 2 0
Jock Landale S 17 12 6 1
Cam Spencer 21 11 3 5
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 24 11 6 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 24 10 5 2
PJ Hall 10 10 7 0
Santi Aldama 16 9 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 25 23 0 6
Bam Adebayo S 26 23 8 4
Kel'el Ware S 30 20 14 0
Andrew Wiggins S 23 10 3 5
Davion Mitchell S 18 10 0 2
Simone Fontecchio 18 8 3 1
Jahmir Young 7 7 0 1
Pelle Larsson 21 5 0 1
Terry Rozier 11 4 2 0
Dru Smith 12 4 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Wells · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:48 Q1
"Jaylen Wells makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kel'el Ware MIA
13%
2 Norman Powell MIA
13%
3 Jaylen Wells MEM
12%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
5 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
10%
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
7 Nikola Jovic MIA
9%
8 Jock Landale MEM
8%
9 Dru Smith MIA
8%
10 Javon Small MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
20%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kel'el Ware MIA 18.5 11.1 1.8
2 Norman Powell MIA 15.8 3.4 2.2
3 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.2 2.3 2.9
4 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 15.0 3.6 3.2
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 13.1 3.8 2.5
6 Javon Small MEM 11.8 2.9 5.9
7 Cedric Coward MEM 11.0 3.9 1.8
8 Jahmir Young MIA 10.9 2.8 2.9
9 Santi Aldama MEM 10.2 6.6 2.3
10 Jock Landale MEM 9.9 5.5 1.2
11 Bam Adebayo MIA 8.6 5.9 1.6
12 Cam Spencer MEM 8.4 1.8 2.5
13 Andrew Wiggins MIA 7.9 1.7 1.0
14 Keshad Johnson MIA 7.9 4.2 3.4
15 Ethan Thompson MIA 7.7 2.6 2.3
16 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.4 2.0 3.0
17 Pelle Larsson MIA 7.4 2.4 2.7
18 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.2 4.1 3.4
19 Myron Gardner MIA 6.9 5.0 1.1
20 GG Jackson MEM 6.7 2.8 1.0
21 PJ Hall MEM 5.9 3.7 0.9
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 5.1 2.6 1.1
23 Dru Smith MIA 4.5 1.9 0.7
24 Precious Achiuwa MIA 4.5 5.0 0.6
25 John Konchar MEM 4.3 4.1 0.8
26 Lawson Lovering MEM 3.8 3.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.