NBA games

CHA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
108–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA29253321108
NY30342623113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (NY) / 4 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home NY
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 27 21 2 10
Miles Bridges S 18 20 5 0
Kon Knueppel S 24 12 5 3
Moussa Diabate S 23 11 5 1
Liam McNeeley S 31 11 2 4
Tidjane Salaun 29 9 10 3
Ryan Kalkbrenner 15 6 1 2
Antonio Reeves 12 4 0 0
KJ Simpson 21 4 3 4
Drew Peterson 11 3 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 34 31 7 6
Mikal Bridges S 33 16 7 4
Miles McBride 24 15 2 4
Jordan Clarkson S 23 13 3 3
Landry Shamet 20 11 1 0
Mohamed Diawara S 21 8 7 3
Tyler Kolek 14 6 2 1
Guerschon Yabusele 22 6 3 1
Ariel Hukporti 22 5 5 2
Trey Jemison III S 26 2 7 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moussa Diabate · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Moussa Diabate makes 9-foot two point shot (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
10%
4 Mitchell Robinson NY
9%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
6 Miles McBride NY
9%
7 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
8 Jordan Clarkson NY
8%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
8%
10 Guerschon Yabusele NY
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
11%
Layup
48%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 15.9 8.4 2.8
2 Collin Sexton CHA 12.3 2.6 3.4
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 11.5 3.2 2.6
4 Mikal Bridges NY 10.9 3.0 1.3
5 Jalen Brunson NY 10.4 2.0 2.6
6 Miles McBride NY 10.2 3.0 2.2
7 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.8 6.6 1.0
8 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 9.2 7.8 0.9
9 Jordan Clarkson NY 9.0 1.7 1.6
10 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 9.0 5.8 1.6
11 Tyler Kolek NY 7.8 2.0 2.4
12 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.1 5.2 1.0
13 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 6.1 2.7 2.1
14 Landry Shamet NY 5.4 1.1 0.9
15 Garrison Mathews NY 5.4 0.9 1.3
16 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.3 2.2 1.2
17 Guerschon Yabusele NY 5.1 2.6 1.2
18 Tosan Evbuomwan NY 5.0 1.9 1.3
19 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.0 9.0 0.8
20 Pacome Dadiet NY 4.9 2.2 0.9
21 KJ Simpson CHA 4.6 1.0 0.9
22 Trey Jemison III NY 4.4 2.7 0.8
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 4.2 3.9 0.7
24 Sion James CHA 4.0 2.2 0.7
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.8 1.7 0.6
26 Matt Ryan NY 3.8 0.9 1.2
27 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.1 1.9 0.7
28 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.5 2.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.