NBA games

BKN @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
114–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN27293028114
TOR37352522119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (TOR) / 3 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home TOR
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 34 10 3
Ziaire Williams 28 20 2 0
Egor Demin 19 14 5 1
Nic Claxton S 28 13 11 5
Tyrese Martin 11 7 6 0
Cam Thomas S 32 7 1 6
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 6 4 5
Terance Mann S 23 6 3 1
Noah Clowney 16 3 2 1
Ben Saraf S 22 3 1 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 35 31 6 4
RJ Barrett S 33 25 4 4
Immanuel Quickley S 34 18 3 10
Brandon Ingram S 34 13 4 6
Sandro Mamukelashvili 18 10 5 2
Jakob Poeltl S 24 10 10 1
Gradey Dick 21 7 3 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 9 3 2 4
Ochai Agbaji 17 2 2 1
Jamal Shead 14 0 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes dunk (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
3 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
12%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
6 Terance Mann BKN
9%
7 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
8 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
9%
9 Nolan Traore BKN
8%
10 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
20%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 19.3 5.5 2.5
2 Cam Thomas BKN 16.7 4.0 3.5
3 RJ Barrett TOR 16.2 4.0 2.9
4 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 13.8 4.6 2.3
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 12.8 2.7 3.9
6 Nic Claxton BKN 9.9 7.3 2.3
7 Gradey Dick TOR 9.7 3.0 1.3
8 Scottie Barnes TOR 8.8 7.9 4.1
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.7 5.6 2.0
10 Noah Clowney BKN 8.6 3.5 1.1
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.2 2.3 1.0
12 Danny Wolf BKN 8.2 3.2 3.9
13 Ben Saraf BKN 8.1 2.0 5.1
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.0 2.4 2.1
15 Terance Mann BKN 7.6 2.4 1.1
16 Jamal Shead TOR 7.4 1.7 4.4
17 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.2 6.0 1.2
18 Ochai Agbaji TOR 7.0 4.0 0.9
19 Chucky Hepburn TOR 6.9 1.1 2.5
20 Nolan Traore BKN 6.3 1.6 1.9
21 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.6 3.5 1.1
22 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 5.4 3.1 1.8
23 Jamison Battle TOR 5.0 1.5 0.8
24 Tyrese Martin BKN 4.8 2.0 1.3
25 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.6 1.6 0.7
26 Alijah Martin TOR 3.1 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.