NBA games

POR @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
129–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR32323530129
UTAH34264329132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (UTAH) / 3 (POR) games this season
POR away
home UTAH
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 31 32 6 0
Jrue Holiday S 32 24 7 7
Shaedon Sharpe S 35 20 3 3
Caleb Love 21 16 3 2
Donovan Clingan S 29 9 10 2
Deni Avdija S 16 8 3 3
Sidy Cissoko 16 7 0 4
Kris Murray 19 5 6 2
Rayan Rupert 8 3 3 1
Yang Hansen 15 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 26 20 1 2
Lauri Markkanen S 21 15 3 5
Svi Mykhailiuk S 26 15 2 4
Walker Kessler S 26 14 10 8
Brice Sensabaugh 21 12 5 1
Jusuf Nurkic 14 12 4 1
Kyle Filipowski S 24 9 2 0
Elijah Harkless 21 9 0 0
Mo Bamba 9 8 3 2
Taylor Hendricks 25 8 7 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Filipowski · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Kyle Filipowski makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
13%
2 Ace Bailey UTAH
13%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
4 Deni Avdija POR
11%
5 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
6 Jerami Grant POR
10%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
10%
8 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
9 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
9%
10 Caleb Love POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
26%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 19.6 3.2 1.9
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.4 5.8 2.4
3 Deni Avdija POR 16.8 7.1 3.3
4 Ace Bailey UTAH 16.7 5.2 2.0
5 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 16.1 4.9 2.5
6 Keyonte George UTAH 15.6 4.2 6.1
7 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 15.2 8.8 3.7
8 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 13.9 4.1 5.1
9 Jerami Grant POR 12.7 5.2 1.6
10 Caleb Love POR 11.2 2.8 1.9
11 Jrue Holiday POR 10.6 3.3 5.2
12 Yang Hansen POR 10.2 4.9 1.5
13 Cody Williams UTAH 9.0 3.1 1.3
14 Kris Murray POR 8.6 4.4 1.4
15 Blake Wesley POR 8.3 3.7 2.9
16 Kevin Love UTAH 7.7 3.5 1.3
17 Donovan Clingan POR 7.5 8.6 1.0
18 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 6.6 2.0 1.6
19 Sidy Cissoko POR 5.8 3.1 2.1
20 Javonte Cooke POR 4.3 1.9 0.8
21 Rayan Rupert POR 4.2 3.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.