NBA games

MIN @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
120–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN31233531120
CHI26342640126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (CHI) / 4 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home CHI
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 30 25 7 5
Julius Randle S 27 23 8 4
Rudy Gobert S 26 16 8 1
Terrence Shannon Jr. 24 14 3 7
Rob Dillingham 23 13 0 5
Donte DiVincenzo 18 9 3 0
Bones Hyland 8 6 1 0
Joan Beringer 12 4 7 0
Jaden McDaniels S 23 4 3 1
Mike Conley S 20 3 2 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 25 19 1 1
Julian Phillips 22 17 6 1
Jalen Smith S 24 15 5 0
Josh Giddey S 29 14 7 9
Nikola Vucevic S 24 13 10 2
Jevon Carter 13 12 0 1
Zach Collins 18 10 4 2
Kevin Huerter 22 8 2 5
Tre Jones S 24 8 5 4
Dalen Terry 25 6 9 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Matas Buzelis CHI
15%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
15%
3 Joan Beringer MIN
10%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Tre Jones CHI
8%
7 Bones Hyland MIN
8%
8 Rob Dillingham MIN
8%
9 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN
8%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
22%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Matas Buzelis CHI 17.1 4.8 1.4
2 Josh Giddey CHI 15.4 6.5 5.6
3 Johnny Juzang MIN 13.7 3.9 1.1
4 Rob Dillingham MIN 13.3 2.7 6.3
5 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 12.4 3.8 3.7
6 Zach Collins CHI 11.4 4.4 1.9
7 Jevon Carter CHI 10.7 2.4 1.8
8 Tre Jones CHI 9.8 3.2 4.6
9 Nikola Vucevic CHI 8.0 7.0 2.6
10 Bones Hyland MIN 7.6 2.7 2.8
11 Joan Beringer MIN 7.4 5.3 0.8
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 5.8 5.6 1.5
13 Rocco Zikarsky MIN 5.8 3.7 0.8
14 Dalen Terry CHI 5.4 2.5 2.7
15 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 5.0 2.6 2.7
16 Jalen Smith CHI 4.8 4.2 1.4
17 Tristen Newton MIN 4.7 1.3 1.2
18 Noa Essengue CHI 4.5 2.1 0.9
19 Enrique Freeman MIN 4.4 1.8 0.6
20 Jules Bernard MIN 4.4 1.1 0.9
21 Zyon Pullin MIN 3.7 1.4 2.2
22 Alize Johnson MIN 3.6 2.5 0.6
23 Emanuel Miller CHI 2.6 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.