NBA games

HOU @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
133–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU31293538133
ATL27342628115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (ATL) / 3 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home ATL
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Reed Sheppard S 29 29 6 6
Josh Okogie S 32 28 3 3
Isaiah Crawford S 31 20 9 3
Jeff Green S 37 16 8 3
Aaron Holiday S 34 16 5 6
JD Davison 33 14 4 6
Kevon Harris 21 10 7 0
Cameron Matthews 23 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zaccharie Risacher S 25 24 8 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 28 23 13 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 28 17 2 2
Trae Young S 28 12 7 10
Luke Kennard 22 8 0 3
N'Faly Dante 20 7 7 0
Keaton Wallace 17 6 1 5
Asa Newell 21 6 4 1
Onyeka Okongwu S 28 5 7 0
Jacob Toppin 7 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point shot (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
16%
2 Jacob Toppin ATL
13%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
13%
4 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
5 Asa Newell ATL
12%
6 Keaton Wallace ATL
11%
7 N'Faly Dante ATL
11%
8 Vit Krejci ATL
10%
9 Jeff Green HOU
0%
10 Aaron Holiday HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
21%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Amen Thompson HOU 25.5 6.2 5.5
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.6 9.1 9.4
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 22.7 5.8 2.5
4 Tari Eason HOU 18.9 5.5 3.0
5 Reed Sheppard HOU 17.4 4.4 3.4
6 Josh Okogie HOU 15.2 3.9 1.9
7 Clint Capela HOU 14.1 6.4 2.2
8 Jacob Toppin ATL 12.8 3.8 3.1
9 JD Davison HOU 12.7 2.7 3.7
10 Aaron Holiday HOU 12.4 2.5 3.4
11 Jeff Green HOU 11.4 3.7 1.5
12 Caleb Houstan ATL 9.0 2.1 1.2
13 Asa Newell ATL 7.8 4.6 1.2
14 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.5 2.1 4.8
15 Vit Krejci ATL 6.4 1.9 0.9
16 N'Faly Dante ATL 3.5 6.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.