NBA games

WSH @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
98–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH1833272098
DET29283626119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (DET) / 2 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home DET
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George S 27 20 6 2
CJ McCollum S 24 17 4 2
Corey Kispert 23 12 5 2
Alex Sarr S 23 10 9 2
Marvin Bagley III 13 9 5 2
Tristan Vukcevic 8 7 1 0
Justin Champagnie 17 5 1 0
Sharife Cooper 6 5 0 1
Will Riley 21 4 1 2
Khris Middleton S 24 3 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 19 20 6 1
Cade Cunningham S 24 16 1 12
Daniss Jenkins 17 11 1 3
Paul Reed 13 11 5 2
Duncan Robinson S 21 10 0 1
Chaz Lanier 23 9 0 4
Tobias Harris S 27 9 4 4
Ausar Thompson S 23 8 7 2
Colby Jones 6 8 2 0
Ronald Holland II 22 4 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes driving layup (Ausar Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ausar Thompson DET
39%
2 Daniss Jenkins DET
30%
3 Duncan Robinson DET
29%
4 Paul Reed DET
0%
5 Bobi Klintman DET
0%
6 Javonte Green DET
0%
7 Brice Williams DET
0%
8 Chaz Lanier DET
0%
9 Tolu Smith DET
0%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
38%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
15%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Daniss Jenkins DET 13.0 2.5 4.6
2 Ronald Holland II DET 9.3 3.1 2.1
3 Ausar Thompson DET 8.7 5.4 2.4
4 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.5 3.6 0.9
5 Duncan Robinson DET 7.3 4.0 2.1
6 Chaz Lanier DET 7.1 2.1 1.0
7 Tolu Smith DET 6.5 6.2 1.0
8 Paul Reed DET 6.1 6.7 1.4
9 Bobi Klintman DET 6.1 3.1 1.5
10 Javonte Green DET 5.4 2.0 0.8
11 Brice Williams DET 3.3 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.