NBA games

NO @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
125–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO21333536125
ORL38233140132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (ORL) / 3 (NO) games this season
NO away
home ORL
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 25 21 0 2
Zion Williamson S 22 18 5 6
Trey Murphy III S 23 18 7 3
Jeremiah Fears 22 16 6 2
Jordan Hawkins 17 15 1 1
Hunter Dickinson 23 12 5 3
Herbert Jones S 21 7 3 1
Yves Missi S 22 6 7 0
Christian Shumate 8 4 1 0
Jaden Springer 4 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 25 24 2 3
Paolo Banchero S 30 19 10 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 14 7 6
Jonathan Isaac 13 13 6 0
Anthony Black 21 11 1 3
Desmond Bane S 28 11 1 2
Orlando Robinson 4 7 1 1
Tristan da Silva 15 7 2 3
Goga Bitadze 11 6 5 0
Lester Quinones 3 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
18%
2 Zion Williamson NO
16%
3 Yves Missi NO
16%
4 Jordan Poole NO
15%
5 Jonathan Isaac ORL
14%
6 Tristan da Silva ORL
11%
7 Tyus Jones ORL
9%
8 Jordan Hawkins NO
0%
9 Jose Alvarado NO
0%
10 Micah Peavy NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
38%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
18%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jeremiah Fears NO 14.6 4.1 3.6
2 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.2 7.2 1.2
3 Jordan Poole NO 12.2 3.0 3.3
4 Zion Williamson NO 11.9 5.3 4.0
5 Saddiq Bey NO 11.9 4.4 2.1
6 Jordan Hawkins NO 10.8 2.7 1.3
7 Jase Richardson ORL 9.4 3.5 1.3
8 Yves Missi NO 9.3 7.6 1.3
9 Anthony Black ORL 9.2 2.6 3.7
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.1 3.7 1.4
11 Jett Howard ORL 8.7 2.8 1.8
12 Jose Alvarado NO 6.4 2.2 2.2
13 Micah Peavy NO 6.4 2.6 1.0
14 Noah Penda ORL 6.2 4.0 0.9
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.9 7.4 0.8
16 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.8 3.4 1.2
17 Jamal Cain ORL 5.8 2.4 0.5
18 Bryce McGowens NO 4.6 1.7 0.6
19 Reece Beekman ORL 3.9 1.3 2.6
20 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.9 3.2 0.4
21 Tyus Jones ORL 3.6 1.1 1.2
22 Orlando Robinson ORL 3.1 2.9 0.6
23 Lester Quinones ORL 3.1 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.