NBA games

TOR @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
108–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR25252533108
BOS30222731110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (BOS) / 4 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home BOS
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 32 20 10 1
RJ Barrett S 28 17 6 4
Immanuel Quickley S 30 14 4 6
Ochai Agbaji 22 10 6 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 21 9 2 1
Jakob Poeltl S 20 8 7 2
Scottie Barnes S 26 7 10 4
Jonathan Mogbo 8 6 1 0
Jamison Battle 6 6 1 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 22 5 7 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 35 33 9 6
Anfernee Simons 32 14 4 2
Payton Pritchard S 32 10 3 10
Josh Minott 25 9 4 0
Neemias Queta S 21 8 12 2
Hugo Gonzalez 14 8 1 1
Xavier Tillman 16 7 7 1
Jaylen Brown S 7 7 2 0
Luka Garza 14 7 2 0
Chris Boucher S 19 5 9 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Derrick White makes 25-foot three pointer (Payton Pritchard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
17%
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR
17%
3 Chris Boucher BOS
16%
4 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
16%
5 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
16%
6 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
15%
7 Gradey Dick TOR
0%
8 Josh Minott BOS
0%
9 Jamison Battle TOR
0%
10 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
60%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
20%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 14.7 3.5 2.6
2 Josh Minott BOS 12.8 6.7 1.7
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR 10.8 2.5 3.2
4 Chris Boucher BOS 10.5 5.0 1.0
5 Gradey Dick TOR 10.2 3.3 1.4
6 Baylor Scheierman BOS 8.7 4.6 3.4
7 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.5 5.7 1.8
8 Luka Garza BOS 8.2 6.9 0.7
9 Jamal Shead TOR 8.1 2.0 3.6
10 Chucky Hepburn TOR 7.9 1.2 2.6
11 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.7 2.6 2.3
12 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.2 3.6 0.8
13 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 5.9 3.2 1.8
14 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.9 3.7 0.9
15 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.8 3.8 1.3
16 Jamison Battle TOR 5.1 1.4 0.9
17 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.8 3.4 1.8
18 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.3 1.4 0.9
19 Alijah Martin TOR 3.7 2.0 0.7
20 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.4 1.2 0.4
21 Jalen Bridges BOS 3.3 1.4 0.7
22 Amari Williams BOS 3.2 2.1 0.8
23 Kendall Brown BOS 3.0 1.6 0.6
24 Olivier Sarr TOR 2.8 2.3 0.5
25 RJ Luis Jr. BOS 2.7 1.2 0.6
26 Max Shulga BOS 2.4 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.