NBA games

MEM @ CHA

NBA First Horizon Coliseum ·Final
116–145
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM30272831116
CHA37294534145

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (CHA) / 3 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home CHA
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Javon Small S 28 18 4 8
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 22 17 2 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 26 15 2 3
Jaylen Wells S 25 12 1 2
Cedric Coward 23 12 3 4
Jock Landale S 22 12 3 0
Vince Williams Jr. 15 11 2 5
Cam Spencer 11 9 0 6
Santi Aldama 23 5 6 2
GG Jackson 12 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 30 29 10 5
LaMelo Ball S 28 23 5 8
Brandon Miller S 30 21 2 6
Moussa Diabate 25 18 13 0
Collin Sexton 18 13 3 6
Kon Knueppel S 25 9 1 4
Sion James 15 8 3 2
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 18 7 7 1
Liam McNeeley 21 7 5 1
KJ Simpson 6 7 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 7-foot two point shot (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
16%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
16%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
15%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
14%
5 Santi Aldama MEM
13%
6 LaMelo Ball CHA
12%
7 Collin Sexton CHA
12%
8 Cedric Coward MEM
0%
9 PJ Hall MEM
0%
10 John Konchar MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
53%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
6%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 18.8 4.1 5.2
2 Jaylen Wells MEM 16.0 2.1 3.3
3 Brandon Miller CHA 14.1 2.3 3.7
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 13.8 4.1 2.4
5 Miles Bridges CHA 13.5 8.5 2.4
6 Collin Sexton CHA 12.6 2.5 2.8
7 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 11.9 8.9 1.1
8 Santi Aldama MEM 10.5 6.8 2.4
9 Cedric Coward MEM 10.1 3.8 1.5
10 Cam Spencer MEM 8.3 2.0 1.9
11 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.3 4.9 1.2
12 GG Jackson MEM 7.9 3.5 1.0
13 Tidjane Salaun CHA 7.9 7.0 1.3
14 PJ Hall MEM 6.8 3.8 1.1
15 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 5.6 2.8 1.2
16 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.5 1.8 1.5
17 KJ Simpson CHA 5.2 1.2 1.3
18 John Konchar MEM 5.0 4.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.