LAL @ PHX
NBA
Mortgage Matchup Center
·Final
104–113
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 29 | 37 | 17 | 21 | 104 |
| PHX | 22 | 34 | 33 | 24 | 113 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 3 (PHX) / 3 (LAL) games this season
LAL
away
home
PHX
21%
79%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic S | 22 | 25 | 7 | 4 |
| Austin Reaves S | 31 | 25 | 4 | 2 |
| Deandre Ayton S | 26 | 10 | 13 | 1 |
| Jake LaRavia S | 34 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| Nick Smith Jr. | 15 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Nate Williams | 10 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| Bronny James | 22 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Christian Koloko | 22 | 6 | 8 | 2 |
| Dalton Knecht | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| RJ Davis | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Jordan Goodwin ·
Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jordan Goodwin makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Oso Ighodaro
PHX
13%
2
Dillon Brooks
PHX
12%
3
Grayson Allen
PHX
12%
4
Deandre Ayton
LAL
12%
5
Devin Booker
PHX
12%
6
Rui Hachimura
LAL
10%
7
Dalton Knecht
LAL
9%
8
Ryan Dunn
PHX
9%
9
Jarred Vanderbilt
LAL
9%
10
Jake LaRavia
LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
71%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
4%
Layup
16%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devin Booker | PHX | 28.2 | 3.6 | 6.7 |
| 2 | Dillon Brooks | PHX | 18.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| 3 | Jared Butler | PHX | 15.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| 4 | Grayson Allen | PHX | 15.4 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| 5 | Oso Ighodaro | PHX | 14.9 | 6.7 | 1.9 |
| 6 | Jordan Goodwin | PHX | 13.1 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 7 | Collin Gillespie | PHX | 12.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 |
| 8 | Nick Richards | PHX | 12.1 | 4.9 | 1.0 |
| 9 | Dalton Knecht | LAL | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 |
| 10 | Jake LaRavia | LAL | 10.3 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| 11 | Rui Hachimura | LAL | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| 12 | Royce O'Neale | PHX | 9.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| 13 | Ryan Dunn | PHX | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 |
| 14 | Khaman Maluach | PHX | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 |
| 15 | RJ Davis | LAL | 8.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 16 | Deandre Ayton | LAL | 7.7 | 8.9 | 1.7 |
| 17 | Nigel Hayes-Davis | PHX | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 18 | Bronny James | LAL | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| 19 | Rasheer Fleming | PHX | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| 20 | Jarred Vanderbilt | LAL | 6.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 |
| 21 | Nick Smith Jr. | LAL | 6.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 22 | Jaxson Hayes | LAL | 6.0 | 5.8 | 1.0 |
| 23 | Nate Williams | LAL | 4.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| 24 | Christian Koloko | LAL | 3.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.