NBA games

LAL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
104113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL29371721104
PHX22343324113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (PHX) / 3 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home PHX
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 22 25 7 4
Austin Reaves S 31 25 4 2
Deandre Ayton S 26 10 13 1
Jake LaRavia S 34 8 8 3
Nick Smith Jr. 15 8 1 1
Nate Williams 10 7 1 1
Bronny James 22 7 4 2
Christian Koloko 22 6 8 2
Dalton Knecht 19 5 1 1
RJ Davis 10 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared Butler S 34 35 7 9
Jordan Goodwin S 37 24 4 6
Khaman Maluach S 31 17 8 2
Nigel Hayes-Davis S 27 10 6 1
Rasheer Fleming S 31 9 5 0
Isaiah Livers 25 7 5 2
David Duke Jr. 17 5 1 2
Koby Brea 25 4 1 5
CJ Huntley 13 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Goodwin · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jordan Goodwin makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Oso Ighodaro PHX
13%
2 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
3 Grayson Allen PHX
12%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
12%
5 Devin Booker PHX
12%
6 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
7 Dalton Knecht LAL
9%
8 Ryan Dunn PHX
9%
9 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
9%
10 Jake LaRavia LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
71%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
4%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.2 3.6 6.7
2 Dillon Brooks PHX 18.8 2.9 3.0
3 Jared Butler PHX 15.4 3.1 3.3
4 Grayson Allen PHX 15.4 3.7 2.4
5 Oso Ighodaro PHX 14.9 6.7 1.9
6 Jordan Goodwin PHX 13.1 3.3 1.6
7 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.6 4.4 2.8
8 Nick Richards PHX 12.1 4.9 1.0
9 Dalton Knecht LAL 10.7 4.7 1.5
10 Jake LaRavia LAL 10.3 4.0 3.0
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.1 4.0 1.4
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.8 3.8 3.6
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.7 5.5 2.1
14 Khaman Maluach PHX 9.6 4.4 1.3
15 RJ Davis LAL 8.1 1.8 0.8
16 Deandre Ayton LAL 7.7 8.9 1.7
17 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 7.7 3.2 1.4
18 Bronny James LAL 7.2 3.3 1.8
19 Rasheer Fleming PHX 7.0 2.4 0.6
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.7 5.2 1.7
21 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 6.3 1.8 1.1
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.0 5.8 1.0
23 Nate Williams LAL 4.4 2.7 0.6
24 Christian Koloko LAL 3.0 3.9 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.