NBA games

GS @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
118–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS22343527118
POR30312624111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 2 (POR) / 3 (GS) games this season
GS away
home POR
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 27 28 6 5
Quinten Post 20 16 5 1
Will Richard S 29 13 6 2
Gary Payton II 17 11 3 0
Al Horford S 21 8 4 1
Jackson Rowe 14 8 2 0
Buddy Hield 22 8 6 2
Pat Spencer 21 8 3 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 18 7 6 4
Trayce Jackson-Davis 17 7 10 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 27 18 4 2
Caleb Love 21 17 2 1
Donovan Clingan S 20 15 11 1
Deni Avdija S 27 15 7 3
Jerami Grant S 24 14 6 1
Jrue Holiday S 27 13 4 6
Yang Hansen 20 9 6 1
Sidy Cissoko 22 5 2 0
Kris Murray 24 4 7 1
Javonte Cooke 4 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jonathan Kuminga GS
21%
2 Buddy Hield GS
21%
3 Brandin Podziemski GS
20%
4 Quinten Post GS
19%
5 Draymond Green GS
17%
6 Will Richard GS
0%
7 Jackson Rowe GS
0%
8 LJ Cryer GS
0%
9 Gui Santos GS
0%
10 Taevion Kinsey GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
40%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
17%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.2 3.7 5.0
2 Quinten Post GS 10.9 3.2 1.5
3 Buddy Hield GS 9.4 3.5 1.8
4 Pat Spencer GS 8.4 2.4 2.2
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.3 3.8 4.0
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 7.6 5.8 1.6
7 LJ Cryer GS 7.0 1.3 1.5
8 Gary Payton II GS 6.9 1.6 0.7
9 Draymond Green GS 6.6 1.9 3.6
10 Will Richard GS 6.2 2.3 2.1
11 Gui Santos GS 5.8 2.7 1.8
12 Jackson Rowe GS 3.5 2.5 0.8
13 Taevion Kinsey GS 2.5 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.