NBA games

CHI @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
117124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI29262834117
DEN37303720124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (DEN) / 3 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home DEN
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 29 25 9 6
Matas Buzelis S 30 20 3 1
Jevon Carter 22 17 4 3
Ayo Dosunmu S 28 11 3 3
Zach Collins 17 11 5 0
Dalen Terry 21 11 5 6
Patrick Williams 25 9 1 5
Nikola Vucevic S 24 5 10 4
Noa Essengue 17 2 1 1
Jalen Smith 9 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 27 30 2 2
Nikola Jokic S 24 18 8 8
Aaron Gordon S 22 17 4 1
Peyton Watson 22 12 2 1
Cameron Johnson S 22 11 3 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 21 10 1 1
Jonas Valanciunas 18 7 4 2
Christian Braun S 28 6 7 5
Bruce Brown 21 5 2 2
Julian Strawther 9 4 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Matas Buzelis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Matas Buzelis makes 4-foot two point shot (Nikola Vucevic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
18%
2 Matas Buzelis CHI
16%
3 Josh Giddey CHI
12%
4 Cameron Johnson DEN
12%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
6 Isaac Okoro CHI
11%
7 Christian Braun DEN
10%
8 Tre Jones CHI
10%
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
0%
10 Dalen Terry CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
59%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
6%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 17.2 7.4 5.0
2 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.6 3.9 1.9
3 Matas Buzelis CHI 15.2 4.7 1.3
4 Jamal Murray DEN 13.2 3.0 3.8
5 Zach Collins CHI 12.3 4.3 2.9
6 Christian Braun DEN 12.1 2.8 2.1
7 Josh Giddey CHI 10.7 5.6 5.3
8 Tre Jones CHI 10.3 3.4 4.9
9 Patrick Williams CHI 10.0 4.2 3.1
10 Jevon Carter CHI 9.1 2.0 1.6
11 Isaac Okoro CHI 8.4 2.7 1.9
12 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.3 5.1 1.9
13 Cameron Johnson DEN 7.6 2.4 1.2
14 Julian Strawther DEN 7.5 3.9 1.1
15 Peyton Watson DEN 7.5 4.0 1.7
16 Jalen Pickett DEN 6.6 2.7 1.7
17 Jalen Smith CHI 6.3 5.4 1.6
18 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 5.5 1.8 1.6
19 Bruce Brown DEN 5.4 2.3 1.5
20 Noa Essengue CHI 5.3 2.4 1.1
21 Curtis Jones DEN 5.2 1.4 1.8
22 DaRon Holmes II DEN 5.0 1.4 0.9
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.9 1.8 1.2
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.9 2.7 1.2
25 Dalen Terry CHI 3.5 1.9 1.8
26 Spencer Jones DEN 3.2 1.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.