NBA games

OKC @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
116112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC33401429116
MIL37282522112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (MIL) / 4 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIL
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 19 23 2 6
Branden Carlson 24 17 9 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 22 13 8 1
Brooks Barnhizer 28 10 12 2
Alex Caruso S 17 9 0 2
Cason Wallace S 27 9 2 8
Aaron Wiggins 27 8 4 7
Luguentz Dort S 18 8 4 2
Ousmane Dieng 21 8 2 1
Malevy Leons 12 6 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Anthony 19 21 2 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 25 16 7 4
Kevin Porter Jr. S 24 15 0 4
Ryan Rollins 17 13 0 2
Gary Trent Jr. S 22 11 1 0
Bobby Portis S 20 9 8 1
Kyle Kuzma 20 5 7 4
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 7 4 0 0
Amir Coffey 11 4 0 1
AJ Green S 20 3 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Wiggins OKC
16%
2 Cason Wallace OKC
16%
3 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
16%
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
13%
5 Brooks Barnhizer OKC
12%
6 Ousmane Dieng OKC
12%
7 AJ Green MIL
12%
8 Malevy Leons OKC
0%
9 Chris Youngblood OKC
0%
10 Zack Austin OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
29%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Aaron Wiggins OKC 16.2 5.5 4.1
2 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 12.2 5.8 2.0
3 Chris Youngblood OKC 12.2 3.3 2.0
4 Ousmane Dieng OKC 11.8 6.0 4.2
5 AJ Green MIL 11.5 3.2 2.0
6 Ryan Rollins MIL 9.7 3.1 1.9
7 Malevy Leons OKC 9.4 5.6 1.3
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.3 1.9 1.8
9 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 9.1 3.1 4.2
10 Cason Wallace OKC 7.9 5.9 3.5
11 Cole Anthony MIL 6.7 3.3 3.9
12 Taurean Prince MIL 6.3 1.5 1.0
13 Bobby Portis MIL 6.0 2.8 0.9
14 Zack Austin OKC 5.5 2.9 0.8
15 Pete Nance MIL 5.4 2.4 1.0
16 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.3 2.8 0.8
17 Amir Coffey MIL 4.0 2.0 0.7
18 Mark Sears MIL 3.8 1.3 0.8
19 Jericho Sims MIL 3.5 2.7 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.