NBA games

DET @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
100–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET31262023100
CLE42202432118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (CLE) / 2 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CLE
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 22 19 5 1
Daniss Jenkins S 35 19 2 6
Ronald Holland II 21 11 4 2
Ausar Thompson S 24 9 5 4
Jalen Duren S 13 8 5 2
Javonte Green 19 6 4 1
Tolu Smith 13 6 4 0
Isaiah Stewart 11 6 0 0
Bobi Klintman 14 4 1 2
Colby Jones 8 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 29 17 2 3
Dean Wade 22 15 9 1
Jarrett Allen S 28 15 6 2
De'Andre Hunter S 14 14 1 2
Sam Merrill S 20 10 1 1
Jaylon Tyson 23 10 4 2
Lonzo Ball 20 9 4 9
Evan Mobley S 33 8 6 5
Tyrese Proctor 13 7 2 3
Larry Nance Jr. 15 5 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 9)
1 Jaylon Tyson CLE
21%
2 Tyrese Proctor CLE
21%
3 Larry Nance Jr. CLE
21%
4 Craig Porter Jr. CLE
19%
5 Dean Wade CLE
18%
6 Luke Travers CLE
0%
7 Thomas Bryant CLE
0%
8 Killian Hayes CLE
0%
9 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
41%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
20%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 10.5 4.5 2.9
2 Tyrese Proctor CLE 10.5 1.5 3.4
3 Jaylon Tyson CLE 9.8 3.3 3.5
4 Thomas Bryant CLE 8.4 2.5 1.5
5 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 8.3 4.4 1.9
6 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 7.5 2.7 1.1
7 Dean Wade CLE 6.9 2.8 1.8
8 Luke Travers CLE 6.8 3.1 1.6
9 Killian Hayes CLE 5.1 1.7 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.