NBA games

WSH @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
120103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH36392520120
NY26262328103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 3 (NY) / 1 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home NY
8% 92%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marvin Bagley III S 24 18 11 3
Will Riley 26 17 2 2
Tristan Vukcevic 17 15 4 3
Kyshawn George S 12 11 0 2
Tre Johnson S 14 10 0 3
Justin Champagnie S 22 10 7 2
Jamir Watkins 17 9 6 0
Bub Carrington S 14 8 3 4
Cam Whitmore 10 7 2 2
Corey Kispert 12 5 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Kolek 23 20 4 6
Jordan Clarkson S 21 12 1 0
Miles McBride S 28 11 1 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 23 11 5 2
Trey Jemison III 16 9 5 0
Pacome Dadiet S 25 8 6 0
Kevin McCullar Jr. 23 8 2 5
Tosan Evbuomwan 16 7 3 1
Garrison Mathews 19 6 2 2
Mohamed Diawara 6 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pacome Dadiet · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Pacome Dadiet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
28%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
26%
3 Mitchell Robinson NY
22%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
22%
5 Garrison Mathews NY
0%
6 Ariel Hukporti NY
0%
7 Landry Shamet NY
0%
8 Guerschon Yabusele NY
0%
9 Pacome Dadiet NY
0%
10 Malcolm Brogdon NY
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
11%
Layup
48%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 12.7 2.1 2.8
2 Mikal Bridges NY 12.5 3.6 1.4
3 Miles McBride NY 11.1 3.5 1.9
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 10.8 6.2 1.4
5 Jordan Clarkson NY 9.8 1.7 1.6
6 Mitchell Robinson NY 8.0 9.6 0.7
7 Garrison Mathews NY 7.5 1.0 1.6
8 Tyler Kolek NY 7.0 1.5 1.9
9 Malcolm Brogdon NY 6.5 2.3 1.5
10 Landry Shamet NY 6.4 1.2 1.3
11 Ariel Hukporti NY 6.3 4.5 0.6
12 Trey Jemison III NY 6.2 2.1 0.6
13 Guerschon Yabusele NY 6.0 2.5 1.1
14 Pacome Dadiet NY 4.9 1.4 1.0
15 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.6 1.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.