NBA games

SA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
124108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA34353520124
IND30362913108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 2 (IND) / 3 (SA) games this season
SA away
home IND
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 25 27 11 4
Luke Kornet 22 16 7 1
Stephon Castle S 19 14 3 4
Keldon Johnson 20 14 3 1
Julian Champagnie S 26 12 2 1
Dylan Harper 22 11 0 8
Devin Vassell S 28 8 4 4
Carter Bryant 9 8 1 0
Harrison Barnes S 23 4 2 3
David Jones Garcia 6 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 23 31 4 1
Pascal Siakam S 24 17 3 3
Jarace Walker 20 12 3 1
Andrew Nembhard S 23 11 2 8
Cameron Payne 17 10 1 2
Aaron Nesmith S 22 9 4 1
Obi Toppin 17 6 4 3
Gabe McGlothan 12 5 3 0
Tony Bradley 12 3 4 0
Taelon Peter 19 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 8-foot two point shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Keldon Johnson SA
32%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
32%
3 Julian Champagnie SA
19%
4 Harrison Barnes SA
16%
5 Lindy Waters III SA
0%
6 Harrison Ingram SA
0%
7 David Jones Garcia SA
0%
8 Riley Minix SA
0%
9 Bismack Biyombo SA
0%
10 Micah Potter SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
11%
Layup
55%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 16.0 7.2 4.2
2 Keldon Johnson SA 14.5 4.6 0.9
3 Julian Champagnie SA 10.7 2.7 2.2
4 Carter Bryant SA 10.0 3.6 1.2
5 Luke Kornet SA 9.6 6.7 2.1
6 David Jones Garcia SA 9.4 4.0 2.8
7 Lindy Waters III SA 6.2 2.1 1.4
8 Harrison Ingram SA 5.5 3.1 1.0
9 Harrison Barnes SA 5.0 2.3 1.7
10 Stanley Umude SA 5.0 1.4 0.5
11 Riley Minix SA 3.6 1.0 1.5
12 Bismack Biyombo SA 3.1 3.2 0.3
13 Micah Potter SA 2.9 2.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.