NBA games

MIA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
118–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIA2430163216118
ATL3519222617119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 2 (ATL) / 4 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ATL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 26 17 4 3
Norman Powell S 28 17 4 1
Ethan Thompson 15 17 2 1
Bam Adebayo S 19 13 9 3
Davion Mitchell 22 10 4 1
Keshad Johnson 16 8 5 3
Andrew Wiggins S 24 6 1 0
Kel'el Ware S 21 6 11 2
Gabe Madsen 13 6 4 2
Precious Achiuwa 9 4 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jacob Toppin S 42 26 9 5
Caleb Houstan 33 21 2 1
Asa Newell S 36 19 8 2
Lamont Butler 37 18 6 5
Charles Bassey 31 7 17 1
Vit Krejci S 20 7 2 2
Nikola Durisic 16 7 3 2
Keaton Wallace S 13 5 1 4
Eli John Ndiaye 15 5 3 0
N'Faly Dante S 21 4 7 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
17%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
13%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
12%
5 Keshad Johnson MIA
12%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
12%
7 Nikola Jovic MIA
11%
8 Dru Smith MIA
10%
9 Precious Achiuwa MIA
0%
10 Myron Gardner MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
38%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
28%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kel'el Ware MIA 20.3 11.2 2.0
2 Norman Powell MIA 13.6 3.0 2.0
3 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 11.5 3.2 2.3
4 Jahmir Young MIA 11.0 3.0 2.9
5 Keshad Johnson MIA 8.0 4.3 3.2
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 7.8 1.5 0.9
7 Myron Gardner MIA 7.6 4.9 1.1
8 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.4 4.3 3.3
9 Ethan Thompson MIA 7.1 2.9 2.7
10 Bam Adebayo MIA 6.9 5.0 1.1
11 Precious Achiuwa MIA 5.6 5.4 0.7
12 Dru Smith MIA 4.5 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.