NBA games

MIA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
104–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA32232227104
ORL37252929120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 2 (ORL) / 3 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ORL
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kel'el Ware S 25 24 10 1
Jahmir Young 32 18 2 1
Pelle Larsson S 21 14 2 3
Myron Gardner 30 11 7 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 15 9 0 2
Precious Achiuwa 19 7 8 1
Dain Dainja 9 5 3 0
Ethan Thompson 34 5 5 2
Keshad Johnson S 25 4 3 3
Gabe Madsen 16 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 16 17 5 3
Jase Richardson 20 13 2 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 14 12 4 0
Tristan da Silva S 16 11 7 3
Jett Howard 19 11 5 4
Anthony Black 20 9 2 4
Noah Penda 23 7 5 1
Jonathan Isaac S 18 6 4 1
Jamal Cain 12 6 4 0
Colin Castleton 8 6 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Tristan da Silva assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 5)
1 Nikola Jovic MIA
97%
2 Kel'el Ware MIA
1%
3 Keshad Johnson MIA
1%
4 Myron Gardner MIA
1%
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
1%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
14%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kel'el Ware MIA 18.8 10.1 1.5
2 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 11.9 3.7 2.3
3 Keshad Johnson MIA 8.0 4.3 3.2
4 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.3 4.3 3.3
5 Myron Gardner MIA 5.6 3.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.