Sunday, October 12, 2025

TOR @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final

113–112

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
TOR	26	26	35	26	113
WSH	20	33	26	33	112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 0 (WSH) / 3 (TOR) games this season

TOR away

home WSH

35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Immanuel Quickley S	24	18	3	3	6/16	5/10	0
RJ Barrett S	24	15	3	1	4/12	2/5	-11
Chucky Hepburn	11	12	0	0	4/6	3/4	-4
Scottie Barnes S	21	10	12	4	3/11	0/3	22
Ja'Kobe Walter S	22	10	4	2	3/10	1/6	14
Gradey Dick	18	8	1	1	2/5	2/4	-2
Sandro Mamukelashvili S	20	8	9	3	4/11	0/4	6
Jamison Battle	15	7	3	0	3/5	1/3	15
Jamal Shead	13	7	2	4	1/6	0/1	5
Ochai Agbaji	16	5	11	0	2/8	0/3	-2

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
CJ McCollum S	25	19	5	2	7/14	5/9	15
Alex Sarr S	17	12	8	0	4/5	1/1	17
Kyshawn George S	25	11	9	3	3/14	1/7	13
Khris Middleton S	24	11	9	5	4/4	1/1	13
Marvin Bagley III	15	10	7	2	3/8	0/1	14
Cam Whitmore	17	10	0	0	4/7	1/1	-27
Tristan Vukcevic	16	9	4	1	2/2	0/0	-30
Tre Johnson	23	8	7	1	3/9	0/1	-15
Corey Kispert	20	5	4	2	2/8	0/3	-20
Bub Carrington S	23	4	1	2	0/8	0/5	-34

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Immanuel Quickley · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:31 Q1

"Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 2 of 2"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Gradey Dick TOR

28%

2 Jamal Shead TOR

25%

3 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR

23%

4 Ochai Agbaji TOR

22%

5 Olivier Sarr TOR

6 Jamison Battle TOR

7 Jonathan Mogbo TOR

8 Alijah Martin TOR

9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR

10 Chucky Hepburn TOR

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

32%

Dunk

19%

Free Throw

Jumper

16%

Layup

26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Gradey Dick	TOR	13.1	4.1	1.5	8	1	1
2	Jamal Shead	TOR	9.2	2.4	4.4	7	2	4
3	Sandro Mamukelashvili	TOR	8.8	5.0	1.6	8	9	3
4	Chucky Hepburn	TOR	8.3	1.7	3.3	12	0	0
5	Ja'Kobe Walter	TOR	7.6	2.5	2.6	10	4	2
6	Ochai Agbaji	TOR	7.4	2.5	0.9	5	11	0
7	Jonathan Mogbo	TOR	6.7	4.4	1.7	2	3	0
8	Jamison Battle	TOR	5.4	1.3	1.2	7	3	0
9	Alijah Martin	TOR	5.4	2.3	0.8	0	3	1
10	Olivier Sarr	TOR	3.2	1.8	0.7	4	4	0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.