Saturday, October 11, 2025

OKC @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final

101–116

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
OKC	29	29	17	26	101
IND	30	32	29	25	116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 1 (IND) / 3 (OKC) games this season

OKC away

home IND

22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Chris Youngblood	31	25	5	3	6/11	4/9	-7
Brooks Barnhizer S	38	16	11	1	6/12	2/2	-14
Ajay Mitchell S	15	16	1	3	6/8	0/1	-2
Ousmane Dieng S	29	10	6	3	3/12	2/8	-14
Malevy Leons	29	7	3	1	3/8	0/2	1
Cason Wallace S	17	7	2	2	2/8	1/4	-8
Aaron Wiggins S	23	6	5	2	2/12	0/3	-19
Zack Austin	29	5	1	0	1/6	1/6	-1
Jazian Gortman	24	5	2	2	2/5	1/1	-12
Isaiah Joe	7	4	1	1	1/1	1/1	1

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Taelon Peter	27	18	5	5	6/11	4/8	3
Bennedict Mathurin S	16	16	6	1	4/9	1/4	7
Obi Toppin S	17	14	4	3	6/10	2/6	6
Quenton Jackson	11	14	2	2	6/8	2/4	10
RayJ Dennis	18	11	0	3	4/9	2/7	0
James Wiseman	12	10	5	0	4/4	0/0	-1
Jarace Walker S	31	10	8	7	3/10	1/6	21
Johnny Furphy	11	8	3	0	3/6	0/3	4
Jay Huff	17	8	2	1	3/3	0/0	11
Isaiah Jackson S	12	3	3	1	1/2	0/0	-4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Ajay Mitchell · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:39 Q1

"Ajay Mitchell makes 6-foot running pullup jump shot"

Most likely first scorer (top 7)

1 Ousmane Dieng OKC

17%

2 Chris Youngblood OKC

15%

3 Malevy Leons OKC

14%

4 Zack Austin OKC

14%

5 Jazian Gortman OKC

14%

6 Isaiah Joe OKC

14%

7 Brooks Barnhizer OKC

13%

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

23%

Dunk

Free Throw

39%

Jumper

21%

Layup

15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Ousmane Dieng	OKC	11.5	5.9	4.2	10	6	3
2	Brooks Barnhizer	OKC	10.9	4.3	1.8	16	11	1
3	Jazian Gortman	OKC	10.4	2.3	2.0	5	2	2
4	Malevy Leons	OKC	9.2	6.2	0.9	7	3	1
5	Chris Youngblood	OKC	9.2	2.7	1.5	25	5	3
6	Isaiah Joe	OKC	8.6	3.6	1.4	4	1	1
7	Zack Austin	OKC	5.7	2.4	0.5	5	1	0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.