NBA games

SAC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
110–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC33242726110
POR33441926122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home POR
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Precious Achiuwa S 35 27 11 4
Nique Clifford S 39 24 7 5
Maxime Raynaud S 37 21 9 2
Killian Hayes 26 9 2 3
Devin Carter S 34 8 6 8
Daeqwon Plowden S 22 8 1 2
Doug McDermott 26 7 3 0
Dylan Cardwell 21 6 8 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 33 25 6 10
Jrue Holiday S 33 23 7 3
Toumani Camara S 34 15 4 2
Scoot Henderson S 27 15 2 4
Donovan Clingan S 24 13 10 1
Kris Murray 30 9 4 3
Shaedon Sharpe 17 9 1 4
Robert Williams III 23 6 10 1
Matisse Thybulle 7 5 1 0
Vit Krejci 5 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes 9-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Precious Achiuwa SAC
11%
2 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
3 Devin Carter SAC
9%
4 Deni Avdija POR
9%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
8%
6 Nique Clifford SAC
8%
7 Toumani Camara POR
7%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
9 De'Andre Hunter SAC
7%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
37%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.5 6.4 7.7
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.2 4.3 3.4
3 Jrue Holiday POR 18.4 4.7 5.8
4 Toumani Camara POR 17.4 4.4 2.5
5 Scoot Henderson POR 17.3 3.1 3.9
6 Devin Carter SAC 16.4 4.8 3.6
7 Maxime Raynaud SAC 15.7 8.4 2.1
8 Nique Clifford SAC 14.6 4.8 4.1
9 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 14.3 3.2 1.8
10 Precious Achiuwa SAC 13.7 8.6 1.8
11 Keegan Murray SAC 12.3 4.3 1.8
12 Donovan Clingan POR 11.7 10.0 1.8
13 De'Andre Hunter SAC 11.6 3.1 1.8
14 Matisse Thybulle POR 9.3 2.9 1.7
15 Caleb Love POR 8.1 1.4 2.3
16 Robert Williams III POR 7.1 6.9 1.0
17 Kris Murray POR 7.0 3.0 2.3
18 Doug McDermott SAC 6.7 1.9 1.3
19 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.5 6.3 1.6
20 Killian Hayes SAC 6.1 2.4 3.1
21 Vit Krejci POR 5.3 2.7 1.5
22 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.7 3.9 0.8
23 Sidy Cissoko POR 3.8 1.9 1.3
24 Blake Wesley POR 3.7 1.6 1.1
25 Jayson Kent POR 3.5 1.7 0.6
26 Yang Hansen POR 3.2 1.8 0.6
27 Patrick Baldwin Jr. SAC 2.6 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.