NBA games

GS @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
110–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS26223329110
LAC25273132115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAC
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 29 24 6 3
Charles Bassey 19 16 3 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 24 12 8 1
Brandin Podziemski S 21 10 4 2
Nate Williams 13 9 2 1
Malevy Leons 17 8 2 2
Pat Spencer 19 7 3 3
Gui Santos 17 7 7 2
Seth Curry 12 6 1 2
Al Horford S 19 5 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 32 20 9 8
John Collins S 21 18 9 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 21 17 3 0
Darius Garland S 27 15 1 6
Jordan Miller 29 14 4 6
Kobe Sanders 23 11 3 2
Nicolas Batum 22 9 2 2
Brook Lopez S 23 7 8 0
Kris Dunn S 22 4 1 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 21 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Al Horford · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Al Horford makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kristaps Porzingis GS
12%
2 Gui Santos GS
12%
3 Darius Garland LAC
12%
4 Brook Lopez LAC
12%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
12%
6 Stephen Curry GS
8%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Nate Williams GS
8%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
34%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Darius Garland LAC 22.9 3.4 7.0
2 Stephen Curry GS 22.4 3.3 4.5
3 Brandin Podziemski GS 21.3 4.8 4.0
4 Gui Santos GS 17.9 4.7 3.8
5 Kristaps Porzingis GS 17.8 6.0 2.7
6 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 13.8 4.1 2.8
7 Brook Lopez LAC 13.5 6.1 2.1
8 John Collins LAC 12.5 4.9 1.7
9 Gary Payton II GS 11.7 4.9 2.0
10 Al Horford GS 11.0 4.7 3.0
11 De'Anthony Melton GS 10.9 3.9 3.4
12 Jordan Miller LAC 10.8 3.0 2.6
13 Pat Spencer GS 10.1 3.2 3.9
14 Draymond Green GS 9.8 4.8 6.0
15 Kobe Sanders LAC 8.3 1.6 1.5
16 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.2 4.4 1.4
17 Nate Williams GS 7.3 2.3 1.2
18 Kris Dunn LAC 7.2 3.3 3.3
19 Seth Curry GS 6.2 1.5 0.9
20 Will Richard GS 6.1 2.4 1.1
21 Malevy Leons GS 4.9 2.3 1.1
22 Charles Bassey GS 4.7 4.1 0.5
23 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.4 1.2 1.2
24 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.9 2.3 0.8
25 Norchad Omier LAC 3.4 1.7 0.6
26 Sean Pedulla LAC 3.2 1.1 0.8
27 Cam Christie LAC 3.0 1.5 0.7
28 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.5 1.2 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.