NBA games

UTAH @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
107–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH22232933107
LAL32303336131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home LAL
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Oscar Tshiebwe S 32 29 17 3
Brice Sensabaugh 13 15 2 1
Ace Bailey S 29 15 3 1
Bez Mbeng S 48 14 4 9
Cody Williams S 39 14 3 6
Blake Hinson S 26 10 6 2
Hayden Gray 25 6 0 1
John Konchar 28 4 7 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 26 22 10 1
Rui Hachimura S 29 22 10 0
LeBron James S 17 18 4 6
Dalton Knecht 12 17 2 4
Nick Smith Jr. 18 12 0 1
Bronny James 19 11 1 4
Adou Thiero 12 8 4 2
Marcus Smart S 26 5 2 10
Jarred Vanderbilt 16 4 4 2
Luke Kennard S 11 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luke Kennard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Luke Kennard makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cody Williams UTAH
12%
2 Ace Bailey UTAH
11%
3 Isaiah Collier UTAH
10%
4 LeBron James LAL
10%
5 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
9%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
7 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH
8%
8 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
9 Elijah Harkless UTAH
6%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
43%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 24.4 8.1 8.6
2 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 23.8 4.3 4.1
3 Ace Bailey UTAH 20.5 5.5 3.1
4 Cody Williams UTAH 17.9 4.1 5.1
5 Isaiah Collier UTAH 17.1 2.9 6.1
6 Deandre Ayton LAL 13.7 8.3 0.9
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.2 3.9 1.0
8 Luke Kennard LAL 12.8 4.1 3.8
9 Marcus Smart LAL 12.3 3.2 2.8
10 John Konchar UTAH 10.9 7.1 4.5
11 Blake Hinson UTAH 10.9 2.5 1.5
12 Elijah Harkless UTAH 10.9 2.7 3.6
13 Bez Mbeng UTAH 10.6 3.8 3.8
14 Jake LaRavia LAL 10.0 5.3 1.4
15 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 9.4 7.8 1.7
16 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.8 2.3 1.5
17 Bronny James LAL 6.6 2.1 1.0
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.5 4.0 1.2
19 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 6.2 1.8 1.4
20 Drew Timme LAL 6.0 2.1 1.3
21 Maxi Kleber LAL 4.6 3.6 0.5
22 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.4 2.2 1.1
23 Adou Thiero LAL 4.4 2.2 1.1
24 Kevin Love UTAH 4.3 4.6 1.3
25 Chris Manon LAL 4.1 2.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.