NBA games

DEN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
128–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN37333127128
SA34223527118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home SA
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julian Strawther S 34 25 6 3
Nikola Jokic S 18 23 8 1
Jonas Valanciunas 19 16 11 4
David Roddy 33 15 13 2
Bruce Brown S 28 14 4 5
Curtis Jones 32 13 5 3
Jalen Pickett 30 11 3 6
Zeke Nnaji S 20 6 2 2
Tyus Jones S 21 5 5 4
DaRon Holmes II 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 33 24 6 5
Devin Vassell S 33 19 4 2
Keldon Johnson 22 18 6 1
Carter Bryant 30 13 5 5
Harrison Barnes 25 12 1 1
Stephon Castle S 29 10 11 9
Dylan Harper 18 9 3 1
Julian Champagnie S 25 7 4 1
Jordan McLaughlin 2 2 1 1
Bismack Biyombo 6 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
13%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
4 Jonas Valanciunas DEN
10%
5 Dylan Harper SA
9%
6 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
7 Devin Vassell SA
9%
8 Bruce Brown DEN
8%
9 Tyus Jones DEN
8%
10 Julian Strawther DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
16%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.4 10.4 8.9
2 Stephon Castle SA 21.0 6.3 9.8
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 17.3 3.5 6.2
4 Dylan Harper SA 15.8 4.2 5.0
5 Keldon Johnson SA 14.9 4.9 1.9
6 Devin Vassell SA 11.6 4.7 2.6
7 Julian Champagnie SA 11.3 5.6 1.9
8 Bruce Brown DEN 8.9 3.9 1.9
9 Harrison Barnes SA 8.0 2.1 1.5
10 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.6 4.5 0.9
11 Julian Strawther DEN 6.3 1.7 1.1
12 Carter Bryant SA 5.8 2.6 1.4
13 David Roddy DEN 4.8 1.6 0.6
14 KJ Simpson DEN 4.8 1.8 1.6
15 Spencer Jones DEN 4.4 2.6 0.7
16 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.0 1.3 0.9
17 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.6 1.3 0.6
18 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.4 1.3 1.3
19 Tyus Jones DEN 3.2 1.3 0.9
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.2 2.1 0.7
21 Harrison Ingram SA 3.1 1.4 0.7
22 Lindy Waters III SA 3.0 0.9 0.7
23 Curtis Jones DEN 2.9 1.2 0.8
24 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.4 1.2 0.8
25 Mason Plumlee SA 1.8 2.0 0.7
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.5 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.