NBA games

PHX @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
135–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX37333431135
OKC19332526103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home OKC
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamaree Bouyea S 40 27 5 9
Koby Brea 29 20 5 3
Ryan Dunn S 25 20 11 5
Khaman Maluach 29 18 14 0
Amir Coffey S 27 17 3 3
Rasheer Fleming S 38 16 6 2
CJ Huntley 29 10 4 1
Haywood Highsmith 10 5 0 0
Oso Ighodaro S 14 2 6 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Branden Carlson S 42 26 10 1
Payton Sandfort 28 23 4 0
Nikola Topic S 39 18 4 14
Kenrich Williams 33 13 9 8
Jared McCain S 25 9 4 2
Luguentz Dort S 20 6 1 1
Brooks Barnhizer 26 5 2 1
Aaron Wiggins S 27 3 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamaree Bouyea · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Jamaree Bouyea makes 26-foot three pointer (Ryan Dunn assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green PHX
14%
2 Mark Williams PHX
13%
3 Nikola Topic OKC
10%
4 Collin Gillespie PHX
10%
5 Jared McCain OKC
9%
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC
9%
7 Ryan Dunn PHX
9%
8 Branden Carlson OKC
9%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
30%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green PHX 19.5 4.3 3.8
2 Ajay Mitchell OKC 10.3 3.1 3.2
3 Oso Ighodaro PHX 9.4 6.6 2.0
4 Collin Gillespie PHX 9.3 3.5 3.2
5 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.0 5.1 2.0
6 Mark Williams PHX 8.9 7.0 0.9
7 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.4 1.8 1.0
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.8 2.7 1.5
9 Cason Wallace OKC 7.8 2.8 1.8
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.5 2.2 1.2
11 Jared McCain OKC 6.6 1.7 1.2
12 Rasheer Fleming PHX 6.1 2.7 1.0
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.9 4.3 1.4
14 Nikola Topic OKC 5.9 2.0 3.8
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.2 5.0 1.6
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.2 2.9 0.9
17 Branden Carlson OKC 5.1 3.3 1.0
18 Payton Sandfort OKC 4.7 2.1 0.6
19 Haywood Highsmith PHX 4.3 1.7 0.9
20 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.2 4.7 0.4
21 Amir Coffey PHX 3.7 1.7 0.7
22 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.2 1.7 1.0
23 Koby Brea PHX 3.0 1.1 0.7
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 3.0 2.4 0.7
25 CJ Huntley PHX 2.5 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.