NBA games

NO @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
126132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO24353136126
MIN34392435132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home MIN
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremiah Fears S 41 36 10 5
Derik Queen S 41 30 22 4
Micah Peavy S 41 21 4 3
Trey Alexander 32 16 1 1
Jordan Hawkins S 33 13 5 3
Hunter Dickinson 21 6 4 2
Josh Oduro S 31 4 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terrence Shannon Jr. S 35 26 4 5
Joan Beringer S 31 24 13 2
Zyon Pullin 31 19 3 5
Julian Phillips 26 16 1 1
Joe Ingles S 32 15 6 10
Enrique Freeman 26 13 7 2
Jaylen Clark S 30 8 3 2
Rocco Zikarsky 20 8 9 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 8 3 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terrence Shannon Jr. · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Terrence Shannon Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Derik Queen NO
16%
2 Joan Beringer MIN
14%
3 Kevon Looney NO
13%
4 Jeremiah Fears NO
13%
5 Micah Peavy NO
13%
6 Jordan Poole NO
12%
7 Joe Ingles MIN
11%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
9 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
0%
10 Jordan Hawkins NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
20%
Layup
62%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jeremiah Fears NO 22.3 4.1 5.2
2 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 20.3 6.8 5.6
3 Bones Hyland MIN 14.4 3.2 3.7
4 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.0 3.1 2.5
5 Derik Queen NO 12.9 7.8 3.4
6 Jordan Poole NO 10.9 2.8 3.1
7 Bryce McGowens NO 9.7 3.1 1.5
8 Jordan Hawkins NO 8.3 2.4 1.3
9 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 7.8 1.8 1.3
10 Mike Conley MIN 6.5 2.2 3.1
11 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.8 2.0 1.2
12 Micah Peavy NO 5.1 2.2 1.2
13 Kevon Looney NO 4.5 6.6 1.5
14 Joan Beringer MIN 4.4 3.1 0.7
15 Trey Alexander NO 4.3 1.4 1.0
16 DeAndre Jordan NO 4.2 5.8 0.8
17 Hunter Dickinson NO 4.0 2.3 0.7
18 Rocco Zikarsky MIN 3.4 2.2 0.5
19 Enrique Freeman MIN 3.0 1.6 0.5
20 Julian Phillips MIN 2.6 0.9 0.5
21 Zyon Pullin MIN 2.4 0.9 1.4
22 Joe Ingles MIN 2.2 1.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.