NBA games

MEM @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
101–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM26192630101
HOU32343432132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home HOU
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dariq Whitehead S 39 26 4 1
Rayan Rupert S 42 21 12 5
Javon Small 26 18 3 1
Lucas Williamson 35 15 6 3
Jahmai Mashack S 38 11 1 11
Toby Okani S 41 6 7 1
Taj Gibson S 19 4 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Clint Capela S 23 23 13 1
Tari Eason S 24 20 8 3
Reed Sheppard S 26 19 4 3
Jae'Sean Tate S 26 13 6 2
Tristen Newton 12 12 3 0
Isaiah Crawford 16 11 6 1
JD Davison 26 9 10 7
Dorian Finney-Smith 21 9 2 1
Aaron Holiday 20 7 3 2
Jeff Green 24 6 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tari Eason · Layup (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Tari Eason makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
2 GG Jackson MEM
10%
3 Cedric Coward MEM
10%
4 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
10%
5 Adama Bal MEM
8%
6 Jahmai Mashack MEM
8%
7 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
8 Dariq Whitehead MEM
7%
9 Toby Okani MEM
7%
10 Lucas Williamson MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
27%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Amen Thompson HOU 22.7 8.6 7.4
2 GG Jackson MEM 17.1 4.6 1.8
3 Reed Sheppard HOU 16.3 4.2 3.9
4 Cedric Coward MEM 15.0 4.0 2.4
5 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 14.1 4.2 1.4
6 Tari Eason HOU 12.7 6.2 1.9
7 Rayan Rupert MEM 12.6 5.6 2.4
8 Javon Small MEM 12.0 3.2 3.7
9 Toby Okani MEM 10.8 3.0 1.2
10 Lucas Williamson MEM 10.3 4.9 2.4
11 Jahmai Mashack MEM 10.1 3.9 3.7
12 Adama Bal MEM 10.0 3.0 2.1
13 Dariq Whitehead MEM 9.9 2.8 1.6
14 Cam Spencer MEM 8.5 1.7 4.9
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.5 2.2 1.8
16 Tristen Newton HOU 7.2 2.2 2.1
17 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 5.5 2.3 1.9
18 Josh Okogie HOU 5.4 2.8 1.6
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.3 2.7 1.3
20 Clint Capela HOU 5.1 5.5 1.3
21 JD Davison HOU 4.3 1.3 1.3
22 Jeff Green HOU 3.8 1.3 1.0
23 Isaiah Crawford HOU 3.7 1.3 1.0
24 Taj Gibson MEM 3.2 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.