NBA games

CHI @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
128–149
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI34223240128
DAL45353930149

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home DAL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rob Dillingham 30 25 5 5
Collin Sexton S 28 19 3 1
Leonard Miller S 35 17 7 2
Yuki Kawamura 15 14 2 1
Patrick Williams S 36 13 4 5
Mac McClung 18 13 0 0
Mouhamadou Gueye 29 11 3 4
Lachlan Olbrich S 31 10 15 10
Tre Jones S 19 6 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Poulakidas 36 28 2 4
Tyler Smith 37 20 7 0
AJ Johnson 25 20 1 1
Moussa Cisse 41 17 20 1
Ryan Nembhard S 38 15 9 23
Klay Thompson 10 12 0 1
Max Christie S 13 12 1 1
Cooper Flagg S 10 10 4 1
Khris Middleton S 6 8 1 1
Dwight Powell S 24 7 12 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Leonard Miller · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:54 Q1
"Leonard Miller makes 1-foot driving dunk (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cooper Flagg DAL
15%
2 Naji Marshall DAL
14%
3 Collin Sexton CHI
11%
4 Tre Jones CHI
9%
5 Leonard Miller CHI
8%
6 Max Christie DAL
8%
7 Lachlan Olbrich CHI
8%
8 Nick Richards CHI
7%
9 Ryan Nembhard DAL
7%
10 Marvin Bagley III DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
18%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 28.9 7.3 5.6
2 Tre Jones CHI 23.1 4.6 6.2
3 Collin Sexton CHI 21.2 4.3 4.0
4 Naji Marshall DAL 20.2 4.9 5.4
5 Leonard Miller CHI 16.4 7.1 2.0
6 Anfernee Simons CHI 16.3 3.2 2.8
7 Marvin Bagley III DAL 11.7 5.7 1.7
8 Rob Dillingham CHI 10.7 3.4 2.1
9 Max Christie DAL 10.6 3.1 2.0
10 Klay Thompson DAL 9.7 1.8 1.6
11 Nick Richards CHI 9.4 7.0 0.9
12 Zach Collins CHI 9.2 5.4 1.6
13 Ryan Nembhard DAL 9.0 3.3 5.7
14 Patrick Williams CHI 8.6 3.9 2.0
15 John Poulakidas DAL 7.6 2.6 1.1
16 Khris Middleton DAL 7.2 2.8 2.2
17 Lachlan Olbrich CHI 6.6 6.3 1.9
18 Moussa Cisse DAL 6.1 7.7 0.8
19 Mac McClung CHI 5.5 1.8 1.2
20 Dwight Powell DAL 5.2 5.2 1.8
21 Tyler Smith DAL 4.6 2.5 0.9
22 AJ Johnson DAL 4.4 1.7 1.5
23 Mouhamadou Gueye CHI 4.2 1.8 0.9
24 Yuki Kawamura CHI 4.0 1.7 1.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.