NBA games

BKN @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
101–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN27342317101
TOR32383036136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home TOR
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyson Etienne 37 20 1 4
E.J. Liddell S 27 17 4 1
Chaney Johnson 36 16 13 2
Ben Saraf S 26 15 3 4
Jalen Wilson 26 9 8 3
Trevon Scott S 26 8 3 1
Malachi Smith S 36 8 5 6
Drake Powell S 25 8 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 29 26 3 2
Brandon Ingram S 32 25 9 2
Scottie Barnes S 32 18 12 12
Jakob Poeltl S 19 11 5 2
Ja'Kobe Walter 24 11 0 1
A.J. Lawson 11 10 0 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 18 9 3 3
Jamal Shead 20 6 1 4
Immanuel Quickley S 17 4 2 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis 5 4 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
E.J. Liddell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"E.J. Liddell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Malachi Smith assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
7 Ben Saraf BKN
7%
8 Trevon Scott BKN
6%
9 Tyson Etienne BKN
6%
10 E.J. Liddell BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
22%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 22.4 5.2 4.3
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 20.5 5.4 4.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.0 6.1 8.8
4 Ben Saraf BKN 14.2 4.2 4.0
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 12.7 3.4 4.9
6 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 12.7 5.8 2.2
7 Nolan Traore BKN 12.6 3.1 4.5
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 11.6 6.1 1.9
9 Jalen Wilson BKN 11.2 3.7 1.9
10 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 11.0 6.3 1.3
11 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 10.5 3.7 2.0
12 Tyson Etienne BKN 10.4 2.1 2.4
13 Malachi Smith BKN 10.4 3.6 3.0
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 10.1 6.3 2.6
15 Jamal Shead TOR 10.0 1.9 6.1
16 Drake Powell BKN 9.2 2.8 1.5
17 Trevon Scott BKN 9.2 5.7 1.7
18 E.J. Liddell BKN 8.7 3.6 1.4
19 Nic Claxton BKN 8.2 5.7 1.5
20 Chaney Johnson BKN 6.9 3.3 2.1
21 Ochai Agbaji BKN 6.4 2.1 0.8
22 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.5 2.2 0.8
23 Gradey Dick TOR 4.5 1.5 1.0
24 Jamison Battle TOR 4.5 1.8 0.8
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.4 2.6 1.0
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 1.9 1.5 0.5
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.3 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.