NBA games

MIL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
106–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL26361628106
PHI29293830126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home PHI
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cormac Ryan S 38 22 10 4
AJ Green S 36 19 5 1
Jericho Sims S 31 15 7 3
Taurean Prince S 32 14 5 2
Ousmane Dieng S 41 11 7 8
Andre Jackson Jr. 30 9 7 2
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 27 8 2 6
Alex Antetokounmpo 4 8 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 27 21 2 1
Quentin Grimes 28 20 3 5
Justin Edwards 23 17 1 2
Andre Drummond 23 12 12 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 23 11 5 1
Paul George S 21 11 5 2
VJ Edgecombe S 31 9 7 11
Jabari Walker 8 7 2 0
Dominick Barlow 20 7 3 2
Adem Bona S 17 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jericho Sims · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"Jericho Sims makes dunk (AJ Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
15%
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
15%
3 Paul George PHI
13%
4 Ousmane Dieng MIL
11%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
11%
6 Adem Bona PHI
8%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
8 Cormac Ryan MIL
7%
9 AJ Green MIL
6%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
55%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.6 4.4 6.5
2 Paul George PHI 23.8 5.5 4.2
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI 20.0 4.9 5.4
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 19.0 4.8 6.6
5 Ousmane Dieng MIL 17.1 6.2 5.7
6 AJ Green MIL 15.3 4.1 3.0
7 Bobby Portis MIL 14.2 5.1 1.9
8 Taurean Prince MIL 14.1 4.9 3.4
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.5 6.1 1.7
10 Cormac Ryan MIL 12.8 2.7 2.0
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 12.3 3.7 2.1
12 Jericho Sims MIL 10.8 8.6 3.7
13 Pete Nance MIL 10.2 4.4 2.2
14 Trendon Watford PHI 7.1 3.1 2.3
15 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 6.5 2.7 1.6
16 Dominick Barlow PHI 6.2 5.5 1.5
17 Adem Bona PHI 6.1 4.1 1.0
18 Andre Drummond PHI 6.0 6.0 1.8
19 Justin Edwards PHI 5.3 1.4 0.9
20 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 5.2 2.2 0.9
21 Jabari Walker PHI 4.6 2.0 1.0
22 Dalen Terry PHI 4.5 1.6 1.6
23 Tyrese Martin PHI 2.6 1.3 0.8
24 Alex Antetokounmpo MIL 2.6 1.3 0.5
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.2 1.7 0.7
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.7 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.