NBA games

CHA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
110–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA30273023110
NY2024292396

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home NY
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 29 19 7 6
Coby White 16 19 1 2
Brandon Miller S 27 19 3 2
Kon Knueppel S 31 14 6 5
Ryan Kalkbrenner 21 9 5 2
Grant Williams 21 8 6 2
Sion James 21 8 5 2
Miles Bridges S 24 7 1 2
Moussa Diabate S 26 4 9 3
Josh Green 10 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles McBride S 24 21 3 1
Jose Alvarado S 34 16 5 7
Kevin McCullar Jr. 25 14 2 1
Pacome Dadiet 27 12 4 2
Jeremy Sochan 20 12 6 5
Ariel Hukporti S 30 8 9 1
Mohamed Diawara S 34 5 4 6
Trey Jemison III 18 4 2 2
Dillon Jones 12 2 1 0
Jordan Clarkson 16 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mohamed Diawara · Layup (2 pts) · 10:26 Q1
"Mohamed Diawara makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
18%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
18%
3 LaMelo Ball CHA
17%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
16%
5 Moussa Diabate CHA
15%
6 Kon Knueppel CHA
13%
7 Coby White CHA
0%
8 Grant Williams CHA
0%
9 Tidjane Salaun CHA
0%
10 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
21%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.2 4.3 7.3
2 Brandon Miller CHA 17.2 4.3 2.9
3 Miles Bridges CHA 16.2 6.0 2.8
4 Coby White CHA 15.6 3.4 2.9
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 14.8 5.2 3.3
6 Mikal Bridges NY 13.6 2.5 3.1
7 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.6 8.0 2.1
8 Miles McBride NY 7.8 2.3 2.3
9 Jose Alvarado NY 7.3 2.0 3.5
10 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.3 2.3 1.6
11 Grant Williams CHA 6.1 3.5 1.1
12 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.7 3.6 0.7
13 Sion James CHA 5.7 3.2 1.7
14 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 5.3 4.1 0.9
15 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.2 1.4 1.0
16 Josh Green CHA 3.2 1.1 0.7
17 Tre Mann CHA 3.2 1.0 0.7
18 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.2 1.5 0.5
19 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.1 2.5 0.7
20 Jeremy Sochan NY 3.0 2.1 0.6
21 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.6 1.2 0.5
22 Liam McNeeley CHA 2.4 1.8 0.4
23 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.3 1.8 0.7
24 Trey Jemison III NY 2.3 1.7 0.6
25 Dillon Jones NY 1.2 1.0 0.4
26 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 1.0 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.