NBA games

ATL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
117–143
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL24372333117
MIA33372944143

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIA
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield 21 31 3 3
Corey Kispert S 29 21 3 2
Asa Newell S 39 17 11 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 24 11 9 3
Keshon Gilbert 26 11 0 9
RayJ Dennis 27 10 3 3
Keaton Wallace S 32 8 4 6
Christian Koloko 21 4 8 1
Tony Bradley S 22 4 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 26 26 1 5
Bam Adebayo S 29 25 10 3
Norman Powell 23 25 2 2
Kel'el Ware S 29 16 7 1
Davion Mitchell S 26 12 2 1
Keshad Johnson 25 12 4 3
Kasparas Jakucionis 20 8 3 5
Tyler Herro S 22 5 10 8
Andrew Wiggins S 26 4 2 2
Vladislav Goldin 3 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kel'el Ware · Layup (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Kel'el Ware makes layup (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Wiggins MIA
15%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
14%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
13%
5 Davion Mitchell MIA
12%
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
11%
7 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA
10%
8 Kel'el Ware MIA
9%
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
0%
10 Norman Powell MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
55%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
15%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 24.1 4.1 4.4
2 Tyler Herro MIA 20.9 4.5 4.7
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.7 9.8 5.2
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 18.7 4.6 4.4
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.1 8.0 6.0
6 Norman Powell MIA 15.7 3.6 2.1
7 Pelle Larsson MIA 15.5 4.4 3.7
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA 13.0 4.1 2.1
9 Davion Mitchell MIA 12.4 2.9 5.8
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.0 7.0 1.6
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 6.8 3.2 0.8
12 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 6.7 2.4 2.7
13 Corey Kispert ATL 6.0 2.0 1.2
14 Keshad Johnson MIA 5.0 2.2 0.7
15 Tony Bradley ATL 4.9 3.4 0.7
16 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.7 3.3 1.1
17 Asa Newell ATL 4.6 2.6 0.8
18 Keshon Gilbert ATL 4.3 2.8 1.2
19 Buddy Hield ATL 3.8 1.4 1.1
20 Myron Gardner MIA 3.5 1.9 0.7
21 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.4 1.5 0.9
22 Trevor Keels MIA 3.2 1.2 0.7
23 Jahmir Young MIA 2.8 1.1 0.7
24 Christian Koloko ATL 2.3 2.4 0.5
25 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.3 1.7 0.5
26 RayJ Dennis ATL 2.0 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.