NBA games

DET @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
133121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET41402725133
IND27362632121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home IND
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul Reed S 22 26 6 3
Tobias Harris S 22 24 4 1
Isaiah Stewart 17 16 5 0
Kevin Huerter 20 15 2 3
Duncan Robinson S 22 9 2 2
Ausar Thompson S 22 7 5 4
Cade Cunningham S 22 7 8 14
Caris LeVert 14 6 0 0
Javonte Green 12 6 3 1
Tolu Smith 6 5 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Obi Toppin 18 21 2 2
Quenton Jackson S 30 21 0 8
Kobe Brown S 34 20 7 2
Ethan Thompson S 38 18 3 6
Micah Potter S 34 15 11 2
Jay Huff 24 13 3 3
Kam Jones 20 8 1 4
Taelon Peter 14 3 2 0
Jalen Slawson S 27 2 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul Reed · Layup (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Paul Reed makes 1-foot layup (Ausar Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 Jarace Walker IND
13%
3 Ausar Thompson DET
12%
4 Ethan Thompson IND
10%
5 Quenton Jackson IND
9%
6 Ben Sheppard IND
9%
7 Tobias Harris DET
9%
8 Duncan Robinson DET
8%
9 Kobe Brown IND
8%
10 Micah Potter IND
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
46%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 20.6 4.5 10.2
2 Daniss Jenkins DET 18.7 4.2 7.1
3 Jarace Walker IND 15.3 5.3 4.0
4 Duncan Robinson DET 14.7 3.1 2.4
5 Tobias Harris DET 13.6 5.0 3.3
6 Obi Toppin IND 13.3 4.6 2.6
7 Kevin Huerter DET 12.2 3.3 3.5
8 Ausar Thompson DET 11.2 6.0 3.9
9 Ethan Thompson IND 11.0 3.2 2.1
10 Micah Potter IND 10.4 5.5 1.5
11 Jay Huff IND 10.4 5.3 2.0
12 Kobe Brown IND 10.2 3.8 2.8
13 Quenton Jackson IND 9.9 3.1 3.6
14 Jalen Slawson IND 9.1 4.4 2.2
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.8 4.2 1.3
16 Paul Reed DET 8.2 5.2 1.4
17 Caris LeVert DET 7.8 3.3 2.5
18 Javonte Green DET 7.6 3.4 1.1
19 Ronald Holland II DET 7.5 3.2 1.3
20 T.J. McConnell IND 7.4 2.5 5.1
21 Taelon Peter IND 6.6 2.1 1.3
22 Ben Sheppard IND 6.2 2.3 1.1
23 Kam Jones IND 5.7 2.1 4.2
24 Marcus Sasser DET 4.6 1.5 2.1
25 Tolu Smith DET 3.2 3.1 0.8
26 Chaz Lanier DET 2.9 1.2 0.6
27 Isaac Jones DET 2.4 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.