NBA games

WSH @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
117130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH21344022117
CLE43223431130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CLE
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamir Watkins S 34 24 4 3
Bub Carrington S 38 20 2 9
Sharife Cooper 28 20 2 6
Anthony Gill S 30 14 6 0
Julian Reese 18 14 3 0
Justin Champagnie S 32 13 6 3
Will Riley S 34 6 5 4
Jaden Hardy 16 6 1 3
Leaky Black 9 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nae'Qwan Tomlin S 36 26 8 5
Tyrese Proctor 35 22 11 8
Jaylon Tyson S 26 18 6 3
Tristan Enaruna 28 15 3 3
Riley Minix 25 12 1 1
Max Strus S 18 10 5 2
Olivier Sarr 24 10 6 2
Larry Nance Jr. S 20 10 6 3
Craig Porter Jr. S 28 7 7 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Larry Nance Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Larry Nance Jr. makes 1-foot running dunk (Max Strus assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julian Reese WSH
16%
2 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
15%
3 Anthony Gill WSH
15%
4 Bub Carrington WSH
14%
5 Jaylon Tyson CLE
14%
6 Leaky Black WSH
12%
7 Max Strus CLE
11%
8 Will Riley WSH
0%
9 Jaden Hardy WSH
0%
10 Cam Whitmore WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
28%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Will Riley WSH 21.3 4.7 4.1
2 Bub Carrington WSH 15.3 2.5 5.2
3 Julian Reese WSH 14.3 11.5 2.4
4 Jaden Hardy WSH 13.0 2.1 1.9
5 Anthony Gill WSH 12.6 4.3 2.4
6 Jaylon Tyson CLE 12.5 3.9 2.5
7 Justin Champagnie WSH 11.1 5.7 1.7
8 Keon Ellis CLE 10.7 3.2 1.8
9 Sharife Cooper WSH 10.6 2.3 4.5
10 Max Strus CLE 10.5 4.8 2.2
11 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 10.5 3.3 1.2
12 Jamir Watkins WSH 10.5 4.7 2.0
13 Dennis Schroder CLE 9.2 3.0 4.8
14 Cam Whitmore WSH 8.6 3.6 1.1
15 Leaky Black WSH 8.3 4.7 1.9
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.1 3.8 2.3
17 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.6 2.0 1.4
18 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.0 3.4 0.9
19 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.6 2.8 1.1
20 Tristan Enaruna CLE 4.2 2.1 0.8
21 Riley Minix CLE 4.0 1.8 1.0
22 Olivier Sarr CLE 3.5 2.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.