NBA games

ORL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
108–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL29322027108
BOS20324219113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home BOS
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 38 23 6 3
Paolo Banchero S 38 23 10 11
Franz Wagner S 26 20 4 1
Anthony Black 19 13 3 1
Tristan da Silva 24 8 6 2
Desmond Bane S 18 8 2 1
Goga Bitadze 16 5 7 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 3 8 2
Jevon Carter 15 3 2 0
Jamal Cain 16 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Baylor Scheierman S 39 30 7 7
Ron Harper Jr. S 37 27 7 4
Luka Garza S 38 27 12 1
John Tonje 30 13 4 1
Jordan Walsh S 33 9 8 3
Max Shulga S 18 3 3 0
Dalano Banton 37 2 4 7
Amari Williams 10 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Garza · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Luka Garza makes 25-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane ORL
16%
2 Neemias Queta BOS
14%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
12%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
11%
7 Jordan Walsh BOS
9%
8 Sam Hauser BOS
8%
9 Anthony Black ORL
0%
10 Moritz Wagner ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
35%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 21.8 7.8 5.4
2 Payton Pritchard BOS 21.4 3.8 4.8
3 Desmond Bane ORL 19.4 4.0 4.1
4 Franz Wagner ORL 13.6 3.3 2.6
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.6 3.8 6.2
6 Neemias Queta BOS 12.9 8.7 2.4
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.6 6.2 1.6
8 Tristan da Silva ORL 11.8 3.4 2.2
9 Sam Hauser BOS 11.5 3.6 1.7
10 Luka Garza BOS 9.9 4.8 1.3
11 Anthony Black ORL 9.7 3.0 2.3
12 Nikola Vucevic BOS 9.3 5.6 2.1
13 Jamal Cain ORL 9.3 3.5 1.5
14 Baylor Scheierman BOS 8.4 3.0 1.9
15 Jevon Carter ORL 6.6 1.8 1.9
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.4 5.5 1.3
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 6.3 3.1 1.2
18 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.5 1.4 0.9
19 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.0 2.7 0.8
20 Alex Morales ORL 4.0 1.7 1.2
21 Jase Richardson ORL 3.9 1.3 0.8
22 Moritz Wagner ORL 3.5 1.9 0.7
23 Colin Castleton ORL 3.1 2.3 0.5
24 Dalano Banton BOS 3.0 1.1 0.9
25 Noah Penda ORL 2.8 1.4 1.0
26 Max Shulga BOS 2.4 1.2 0.8
27 Amari Williams BOS 1.4 1.4 0.5
28 John Tonje BOS 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.