NBA games

PHX @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
73–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX242416973
LAL33242420101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAL
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 21 12 2 1
Royce O'Neale 22 11 7 3
Oso Ighodaro 21 8 10 2
Grayson Allen S 13 8 4 1
Mark Williams S 20 7 5 0
Amir Coffey 21 7 2 0
Collin Gillespie S 16 5 5 3
Jamaree Bouyea 27 4 2 3
Khaman Maluach 8 4 3 0
Koby Brea 14 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 32 28 6 12
Luke Kennard S 28 19 1 3
Rui Hachimura S 31 13 2 3
Deandre Ayton S 30 10 5 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 19 6 7 1
Marcus Smart 18 6 5 7
Dalton Knecht 4 5 1 0
Nick Smith Jr. 13 4 2 0
Bronny James 13 3 2 0
Jake LaRavia S 31 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes two point shot (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
14%
2 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
3 Jalen Green PHX
11%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
5 Mark Williams PHX
10%
6 Marcus Smart LAL
10%
7 Khaman Maluach PHX
9%
8 Jake LaRavia LAL
8%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
10 Luke Kennard LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
29%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 20.9 8.9 8.7
2 Jalen Green PHX 20.3 4.2 4.0
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 17.8 4.0 2.3
4 Grayson Allen PHX 12.9 3.0 3.4
5 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.4 6.7 1.0
6 Luke Kennard LAL 10.8 3.7 3.7
7 Collin Gillespie PHX 10.5 3.4 3.7
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.4 3.4 1.1
9 Oso Ighodaro PHX 10.2 6.2 2.2
10 Mark Williams PHX 8.9 6.6 1.0
11 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.6 4.4 1.5
12 Marcus Smart LAL 8.4 1.8 2.5
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.4 3.4 1.8
14 Rasheer Fleming PHX 6.3 2.9 0.8
15 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.9 4.2 1.4
16 Bronny James LAL 4.8 1.5 1.1
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.7 3.1 1.4
18 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.6 1.1 0.9
19 Drew Timme LAL 4.4 1.7 0.9
20 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.4 4.8 0.5
21 Amir Coffey PHX 3.8 1.7 0.7
22 Koby Brea PHX 3.1 1.0 0.8
23 Adou Thiero LAL 3.1 1.7 0.7
24 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.0 1.4 0.9
25 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.8 2.6 0.8
26 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.5 1.3 0.6
27 Chris Manon LAL 1.8 1.3 0.5
28 CJ Huntley PHX 1.7 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.