NBA games

GS @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
118–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS27243829118
SAC32311942124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home SAC
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski S 32 30 3 1
De'Anthony Melton 28 17 4 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 26 11 7 2
Stephen Curry S 27 11 3 5
Al Horford 18 10 0 2
Gary Payton II 15 10 3 0
Malevy Leons 12 7 2 0
Draymond Green S 24 7 4 6
Gui Santos S 27 7 3 6
Charles Bassey 15 6 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Carter S 35 29 9 4
Maxime Raynaud S 39 23 9 4
Nique Clifford S 38 20 6 6
Daeqwon Plowden S 37 20 9 3
Malik Monk 10 11 1 0
Dylan Cardwell 24 7 7 1
Killian Hayes 19 6 1 2
Precious Achiuwa S 25 5 6 4
Doug McDermott 14 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Precious Achiuwa SAC
10%
2 Maxime Raynaud SAC
9%
3 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
4 Kristaps Porzingis GS
8%
5 Gui Santos GS
8%
6 De'Anthony Melton GS
8%
7 Devin Carter SAC
8%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
6%
9 Nique Clifford SAC
6%
10 De'Andre Hunter SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
35%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.6 3.5 5.4
2 Brandin Podziemski GS 20.0 4.5 4.3
3 Gui Santos GS 19.9 4.6 4.1
4 Kristaps Porzingis GS 18.4 5.5 2.8
5 Maxime Raynaud SAC 18.1 8.1 2.1
6 Devin Carter SAC 16.3 4.5 3.9
7 Precious Achiuwa SAC 15.4 8.7 1.9
8 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 14.4 2.5 1.8
9 Nique Clifford SAC 14.3 4.8 4.4
10 Malik Monk SAC 13.4 2.5 5.1
11 Keegan Murray SAC 13.1 4.4 2.0
12 Gary Payton II GS 13.0 5.1 2.4
13 De'Andre Hunter SAC 12.3 3.1 2.0
14 Pat Spencer GS 11.6 3.2 4.3
15 Draymond Green GS 10.7 5.2 6.3
16 De'Anthony Melton GS 10.7 3.6 3.6
17 Al Horford GS 9.8 4.1 2.8
18 Doug McDermott SAC 7.7 2.1 1.5
19 Seth Curry GS 6.8 1.5 1.0
20 Killian Hayes SAC 6.6 2.5 3.6
21 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.5 6.7 1.8
22 Will Richard GS 5.9 2.0 1.2
23 Charles Bassey GS 4.9 4.0 0.6
24 Malevy Leons GS 4.9 2.6 1.4
25 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.8 3.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.