NBA games

LAC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
97–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC2427331397
POR33282530116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home POR
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 37 24 8 5
Brook Lopez S 36 21 6 1
Darius Garland S 41 16 5 7
Jordan Miller 32 15 5 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 23 10 2 1
Kris Dunn S 27 5 5 1
Kobe Sanders 11 4 0 1
Norchad Omier 2 2 1 0
Cam Christie 2 0 0 0
Sean Pedulla 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 35 35 4 5
Donovan Clingan S 28 18 13 2
Robert Williams III 18 13 10 0
Kris Murray 20 10 7 2
Jrue Holiday S 32 9 3 4
Scoot Henderson S 31 9 1 3
Shaedon Sharpe 15 8 4 2
Matisse Thybulle 18 6 2 1
Toumani Camara S 33 5 1 3
Sidy Cissoko 3 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
2 Deni Avdija POR
11%
3 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
5 Brook Lopez LAC
8%
6 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 John Collins LAC
7%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Darius Garland LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
28%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.8 6.0 3.8
2 Deni Avdija POR 24.5 7.0 7.0
3 Darius Garland LAC 21.9 3.0 6.4
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.5 4.4 3.4
5 Jrue Holiday POR 19.0 4.7 6.2
6 Scoot Henderson POR 17.0 3.3 3.6
7 Toumani Camara POR 16.5 4.5 2.2
8 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 15.9 4.8 2.6
9 John Collins LAC 13.2 5.5 1.7
10 Donovan Clingan POR 12.0 10.2 1.8
11 Brook Lopez LAC 11.9 6.3 2.0
12 Jordan Miller LAC 10.3 3.1 2.9
13 Matisse Thybulle POR 8.5 3.0 1.6
14 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.2 4.7 1.5
15 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.5 1.8 1.4
16 Kris Dunn LAC 6.7 3.0 3.4
17 Kris Murray POR 6.2 2.7 2.1
18 Robert Williams III POR 5.9 7.0 1.1
19 Vit Krejci POR 4.9 2.7 1.4
20 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.0 1.1 1.1
21 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.9 2.4 0.8
22 Blake Wesley POR 3.9 1.5 1.1
23 Sidy Cissoko POR 3.4 2.0 1.3
24 Norchad Omier LAC 3.1 1.5 0.5
25 Cam Christie LAC 2.8 1.5 0.6
26 Sean Pedulla LAC 2.8 1.0 0.7
27 Jayson Kent POR 2.8 1.1 0.3
28 Chris Youngblood POR 2.5 0.9 0.5
29 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.2 1.0 0.8
30 Yang Hansen POR 1.9 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.