NBA games

OKC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
107–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC27243422107
DEN34253137127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DEN
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Branden Carlson S 37 23 12 5
Kenrich Williams 32 15 12 1
Jared McCain S 25 15 1 2
Nikola Topic S 39 14 2 11
Brooks Barnhizer 33 14 9 2
Aaron Wiggins S 25 13 3 3
Payton Sandfort 28 8 4 0
Luguentz Dort S 20 5 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonas Valanciunas S 32 23 17 4
Julian Strawther S 34 22 4 3
David Roddy 26 21 2 0
Jalen Pickett 30 13 4 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 28 13 1 3
Bruce Brown S 26 10 8 6
Tyus Jones S 23 9 4 3
Curtis Jones 20 7 1 3
Zeke Nnaji 14 5 6 2
KJ Simpson 7 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cameron Johnson DEN
41%
2 Christian Braun DEN
29%
3 Luguentz Dort OKC
26%
4 Cason Wallace OKC
0%
5 Branden Carlson OKC
0%
6 Nikola Topic OKC
0%
7 Brooks Barnhizer OKC
0%
8 Kenrich Williams OKC
0%
9 Jaylin Williams OKC
0%
10 Isaiah Joe OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
54%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
18%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cameron Johnson DEN 13.6 4.1 2.8
2 Christian Braun DEN 12.7 4.3 2.0
3 Ajay Mitchell OKC 10.5 3.2 3.3
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 9.8 2.7 1.3
5 Bruce Brown DEN 9.0 3.6 1.6
6 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.8 2.0 1.1
7 Cason Wallace OKC 8.2 2.9 1.8
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.8 2.6 1.4
9 Jared McCain OKC 6.9 1.8 1.1
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.5 2.1 1.1
11 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 6.5 3.5 0.8
12 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.8 5.1 1.6
13 KJ Simpson DEN 5.2 1.9 2.2
14 Julian Strawther DEN 4.8 1.5 1.0
15 Nikola Topic OKC 4.8 1.8 2.8
16 Branden Carlson OKC 4.7 2.7 0.7
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.4 2.1 1.0
18 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.4 1.2 0.6
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.3 1.1 0.7
20 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.6 2.1 0.7
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 1.7 0.6
22 Curtis Jones DEN 2.4 1.1 0.6
23 David Roddy DEN 1.9 0.9 0.3
24 Tyus Jones DEN 1.9 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.