NBA games

DAL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
120–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL26392827120
SA37314031139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home SA
5% 95%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 32 33 6 5
Max Christie S 31 16 1 2
Khris Middleton S 25 14 3 3
Ryan Nembhard S 31 13 1 7
AJ Johnson 20 13 1 2
John Poulakidas 30 12 1 0
Moussa Cisse 19 7 8 0
Tyler Smith 19 6 2 1
Dwight Powell 25 4 11 5
Marvin Bagley III S 8 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 26 40 13 5
De'Aaron Fox S 28 18 1 10
Keldon Johnson 24 17 6 2
Harrison Barnes 28 15 2 1
Julian Champagnie S 27 14 7 1
Dylan Harper S 26 13 4 6
Carter Bryant 25 12 4 2
Devin Vassell S 27 5 2 2
Jordan McLaughlin 6 3 2 0
Luke Kornet 18 2 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot driving dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
12%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
8%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
8%
6 Dylan Harper SA
8%
7 Max Christie DAL
7%
8 Luke Kornet SA
7%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
10 Devin Vassell SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
43%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.8 12.1 4.2
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 25.8 7.1 5.4
3 Naji Marshall DAL 18.9 4.5 5.0
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 18.8 4.3 5.9
5 Dylan Harper SA 17.3 4.4 4.5
6 Keldon Johnson SA 16.0 4.9 2.2
7 P.J. Washington DAL 14.4 7.1 1.3
8 Devin Vassell SA 12.6 5.0 2.7
9 Marvin Bagley III DAL 11.7 5.7 1.6
10 Julian Champagnie SA 11.3 5.7 2.0
11 Max Christie DAL 9.1 3.0 1.6
12 Harrison Barnes SA 8.1 2.5 1.6
13 Ryan Nembhard DAL 7.7 2.9 5.3
14 Luke Kornet SA 6.7 5.8 1.8
15 John Poulakidas DAL 6.5 2.2 0.8
16 Khris Middleton DAL 6.3 2.6 1.8
17 Carter Bryant SA 5.6 3.2 1.3
18 Moussa Cisse DAL 5.0 6.3 0.5
19 Dwight Powell DAL 4.2 3.7 1.1
20 Tyler Smith DAL 3.8 2.2 0.7
21 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.6 1.5 1.3
22 Lindy Waters III SA 3.2 1.0 0.8
23 AJ Johnson DAL 3.2 1.4 1.0
24 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.7 1.3 0.9
25 Harrison Ingram SA 2.6 1.3 0.5
26 Mason Plumlee SA 2.1 2.2 0.8
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.8 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.