NBA games

BKN @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
108–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN24303024108
MIL38283326125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MIL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyson Etienne S 32 23 4 2
Malachi Smith S 43 19 8 10
Ben Saraf S 41 15 3 3
Nolan Traore 16 14 4 0
E.J. Liddell S 32 13 6 4
Jalen Wilson 34 13 7 7
Trevon Scott S 41 11 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
AJ Green S 41 35 5 4
Cormac Ryan S 34 28 5 3
Taurean Prince S 35 18 10 5
Myles Turner S 27 13 5 3
Ousmane Dieng S 37 12 6 12
Jericho Sims 30 11 10 3
Kyle Kuzma 21 8 1 5
Andre Jackson Jr. 15 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Taurean Prince assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ousmane Dieng MIL
11%
2 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
4 Jericho Sims MIL
8%
5 Ben Saraf BKN
8%
6 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
7 Malachi Smith BKN
7%
8 Myles Turner MIL
7%
9 Trevon Scott BKN
7%
10 E.J. Liddell BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
33%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ousmane Dieng MIL 17.1 6.1 5.4
2 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.0 4.3 3.2
3 Ben Saraf BKN 13.7 4.2 4.3
4 Taurean Prince MIL 13.2 4.2 3.0
5 Nolan Traore BKN 13.2 3.2 5.6
6 AJ Green MIL 13.1 3.8 3.0
7 Jalen Wilson BKN 11.2 3.5 1.7
8 Jericho Sims MIL 10.7 7.8 3.7
9 Cormac Ryan MIL 10.5 2.2 1.6
10 Tyson Etienne BKN 10.0 2.1 2.5
11 Malachi Smith BKN 10.0 3.3 2.7
12 Drake Powell BKN 9.8 3.0 1.7
13 Myles Turner MIL 9.1 4.3 1.2
14 Danny Wolf BKN 9.1 5.0 2.2
15 Nic Claxton BKN 9.0 5.9 1.6
16 Trevon Scott BKN 8.9 6.1 1.8
17 E.J. Liddell BKN 8.3 3.8 1.4
18 Chaney Johnson BKN 7.9 3.6 2.4
19 Ochai Agbaji BKN 7.3 2.3 0.9
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 6.2 2.5 1.6
21 Gary Harris MIL 3.9 1.6 1.1
22 Alex Antetokounmpo MIL 2.9 1.5 0.6
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.6 1.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.