NBA games

MIN @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
136–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN37323433136
HOU36373326132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home HOU
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terrence Shannon Jr. 28 23 0 1
Anthony Edwards S 27 22 2 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 29 18 4 2
Kyle Anderson S 33 17 6 9
Jaden McDaniels S 35 16 7 2
Ayo Dosunmu 26 15 0 4
Joan Beringer S 26 14 4 1
Mike Conley 24 9 1 4
Jaylen Clark 12 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 42 41 9 7
Kevin Durant S 39 33 7 7
Alperen Sengun S 29 22 6 8
Jabari Smith Jr. S 40 16 6 2
Reed Sheppard 18 12 3 3
Clint Capela 8 4 1 0
Josh Okogie S 27 2 1 2
Jae'Sean Tate 8 2 4 0
Aaron Holiday 6 0 1 0
Tari Eason 24 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 7-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
10%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
7 Kyle Anderson MIN
8%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
29%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 27.8 5.7 6.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.5 4.2 4.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.9 9.5 6.2
4 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 19.1 6.6 4.8
5 Amen Thompson HOU 18.7 7.5 5.9
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.4 7.4 2.3
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.8 3.7 2.3
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 13.5 4.2 3.6
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.1 2.7 2.1
10 Tari Eason HOU 10.5 6.0 1.4
11 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.2 1.9 1.5
12 Tristen Newton HOU 5.7 1.7 1.5
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.2 3.5 2.3
14 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.2 1.6 0.9
15 Mike Conley MIN 4.8 1.6 2.3
16 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.7 1.5 1.0
17 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 3.7 2.0 1.3
18 Josh Okogie HOU 3.5 2.1 0.9
19 Joan Beringer MIN 3.3 2.3 0.5
20 Clint Capela HOU 3.2 4.2 0.8
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.2 1.8 0.7
22 Julian Phillips MIN 3.0 1.0 0.5
23 Enrique Freeman MIN 2.9 1.6 0.4
24 Rocco Zikarsky MIN 2.7 1.9 0.3
25 JD Davison HOU 2.4 0.9 0.7
26 Zyon Pullin MIN 2.4 0.9 1.4
27 Jeff Green HOU 2.0 0.8 0.4
28 Isaiah Crawford HOU 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.