NBA games

ORL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
127–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL28363528127
CHI26272624103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CHI
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 23 25 2 4
Jamal Cain 25 20 8 2
Goga Bitadze 17 15 11 0
Paolo Banchero S 27 14 9 7
Jalen Suggs S 20 12 1 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 25 11 6 0
Jase Richardson 6 8 0 0
Anthony Black 19 8 3 2
Jevon Carter 21 7 1 2
Colin Castleton 6 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Jones S 26 23 4 4
Leonard Miller S 39 15 7 4
Matas Buzelis S 27 14 8 3
Rob Dillingham 27 13 4 0
Collin Sexton S 27 12 2 4
Patrick Williams 27 8 4 0
Mac McClung 10 7 1 1
Lachlan Olbrich S 32 6 9 5
Mouhamadou Gueye 17 5 3 2
Yuki Kawamura 9 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes running dunk (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tre Jones CHI
13%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
11%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
6 Leonard Miller CHI
10%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
10 Collin Sexton CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
20%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.4 7.8 6.1
2 Desmond Bane ORL 22.7 4.8 4.8
3 Tre Jones CHI 22.6 4.6 6.2
4 Collin Sexton CHI 21.8 4.0 3.6
5 Matas Buzelis CHI 19.3 6.6 1.9
6 Anfernee Simons CHI 16.2 3.0 2.8
7 Leonard Miller CHI 16.1 6.9 1.9
8 Franz Wagner ORL 15.8 3.8 2.7
9 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.1 4.1 6.9
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.5 6.6 2.0
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 14.2 3.7 2.7
12 Anthony Black ORL 11.0 3.2 2.7
13 Rob Dillingham CHI 10.4 3.0 2.2
14 Zach Collins CHI 9.0 5.2 1.6
15 Jamal Cain ORL 8.9 3.2 1.7
16 Patrick Williams CHI 8.3 3.6 2.0
17 Jevon Carter ORL 6.8 2.0 1.9
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.2 5.9 2.0
19 Lachlan Olbrich CHI 5.9 5.6 1.4
20 Mac McClung CHI 5.5 1.5 1.1
21 Alex Morales ORL 4.8 2.1 1.5
22 Moritz Wagner ORL 4.5 2.3 0.9
23 Jase Richardson ORL 4.0 1.4 1.1
24 Colin Castleton ORL 3.9 2.7 0.8
25 Yuki Kawamura CHI 3.8 1.6 1.7
26 Noah Penda ORL 3.2 1.6 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.