NBA games

TOR @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
95–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR2115283195
NY22292833112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home NY
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Sandro Mamukelashvili 25 17 8 3
Brandon Ingram S 35 16 4 6
Ja'Kobe Walter S 29 15 2 1
Scottie Barnes S 34 15 4 5
Gradey Dick 12 7 0 1
Jonathan Mogbo 17 6 5 1
Jamal Shead S 27 5 0 2
A.J. Lawson 22 5 6 1
Jakob Poeltl S 19 4 3 1
Alijah Martin 12 3 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 31 29 3 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 22 10 5
Mikal Bridges S 33 13 1 3
Jose Alvarado 18 12 5 2
Jordan Clarkson 18 10 1 4
Ariel Hukporti 13 8 4 1
Landry Shamet 28 8 1 1
Josh Hart S 30 3 4 2
Mohamed Diawara 11 3 1 1
Pacome Dadiet 4 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes layup (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
12%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
7 Josh Hart NY
10%
8 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
9 OG Anunoby NY
8%
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
55%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.5 3.1 8.4
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.2 11.1 3.9
3 RJ Barrett TOR 21.4 4.9 4.1
4 Brandon Ingram TOR 20.1 5.0 3.7
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 17.9 6.5 8.8
6 OG Anunoby NY 17.3 4.8 2.2
7 Josh Hart NY 15.8 5.9 3.9
8 Mikal Bridges NY 13.6 3.1 3.1
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 13.0 5.4 1.9
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.7 5.3 1.7
11 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.7 3.7 1.8
12 Jamal Shead TOR 9.2 1.7 7.2
13 Landry Shamet NY 7.1 2.3 1.2
14 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.7 2.4 1.5
15 Jose Alvarado NY 5.6 1.3 3.2
16 Gradey Dick TOR 4.5 1.6 0.8
17 Jamison Battle TOR 4.4 1.6 0.7
18 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.0 1.6 0.6
19 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.0 0.8 0.7
20 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.8 2.1 0.8
21 Alijah Martin TOR 2.5 1.2 0.5
22 Trey Jemison III NY 2.4 1.7 0.6
23 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.1 0.8 0.4
24 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.0 1.7 0.4
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.6 1.8 0.4
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.5 0.3
27 Dillon Jones NY 1.2 1.0 0.4
28 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 1.1 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.