NBA games

PHI @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
105–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI28303116105
IND2130261794

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home IND
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 32 8 5
Paul George S 33 21 5 2
VJ Edgecombe S 40 16 9 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 32 15 7 1
Andre Drummond 29 10 16 1
Quentin Grimes 16 4 3 1
Adem Bona S 19 3 6 1
Dominick Barlow 16 2 3 0
Justin Edwards 16 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarace Walker S 29 17 4 2
Quenton Jackson S 27 16 4 6
Ethan Thompson S 31 15 4 3
Micah Potter S 24 13 10 0
Taelon Peter 23 9 1 1
Jay Huff 24 8 10 2
Obi Toppin 19 7 7 2
Kobe Brown S 27 7 3 3
Jalen Slawson 15 2 5 3
Kam Jones 21 0 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
2 Jarace Walker IND
10%
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
5 Paul George PHI
9%
6 Quenton Jackson IND
8%
7 Ethan Thompson IND
8%
8 Adem Bona PHI
7%
9 Micah Potter IND
7%
10 Ben Sheppard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
48%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.5 4.4 6.4
2 Paul George PHI 22.9 5.5 4.5
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI 20.5 5.4 5.2
4 Jarace Walker IND 16.5 5.9 4.4
5 Obi Toppin IND 15.1 4.5 3.2
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.3 5.9 1.9
7 Quentin Grimes PHI 13.9 4.1 2.8
8 Ethan Thompson IND 11.1 3.1 2.3
9 Jalen Slawson IND 10.9 4.9 2.6
10 Kobe Brown IND 10.9 4.3 2.7
11 Micah Potter IND 10.8 5.3 1.9
12 Jay Huff IND 10.8 4.8 2.3
13 Quenton Jackson IND 10.0 3.0 4.1
14 Taelon Peter IND 7.3 2.5 1.6
15 Kam Jones IND 7.3 2.4 5.1
16 Trendon Watford PHI 7.2 3.2 2.3
17 Ben Sheppard IND 7.0 2.5 1.3
18 Justin Edwards PHI 6.6 1.4 1.1
19 Adem Bona PHI 6.2 4.2 0.9
20 Dominick Barlow PHI 5.9 5.2 1.3
21 Andre Drummond PHI 5.8 5.8 1.8
22 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 5.2 2.2 0.9
23 Jabari Walker PHI 4.5 2.1 0.9
24 Dalen Terry PHI 4.4 1.5 1.5
25 Tyrese Martin PHI 2.5 1.2 0.7
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.6 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.