NBA games

NO @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
118–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO25263136118
BOS44383428144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home BOS
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremiah Fears S 44 36 3 6
Derik Queen S 39 25 11 4
Jordan Hawkins 23 20 5 3
Josh Oduro 24 12 12 1
Jordan Poole S 29 11 3 3
Trey Alexander 15 10 2 1
Hunter Dickinson 5 2 0 0
Micah Peavy S 37 2 2 1
Kevon Looney S 25 0 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Sam Hauser S 28 24 6 4
Jaylen Brown S 29 23 3 1
Payton Pritchard 30 21 3 10
Nikola Vucevic 19 14 4 5
Luka Garza 16 14 6 2
Hugo Gonzalez 25 10 4 1
Derrick White S 16 9 2 5
Baylor Scheierman 25 9 2 2
Neemias Queta S 13 7 10 2
Ron Harper Jr. 12 7 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derik Queen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Derik Queen makes driving layup (Jordan Poole assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Neemias Queta BOS
12%
2 Jeremiah Fears NO
12%
3 Jordan Poole NO
11%
4 Derik Queen NO
10%
5 Kevon Looney NO
10%
6 Derrick White BOS
10%
7 Micah Peavy NO
9%
8 Sam Hauser BOS
9%
9 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
10 Jordan Walsh BOS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
52%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
13%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 31.7 6.4 6.8
2 Payton Pritchard BOS 19.8 3.7 4.1
3 Jeremiah Fears NO 18.5 3.5 4.3
4 Neemias Queta BOS 13.4 9.8 2.3
5 Derrick White BOS 12.9 4.2 3.9
6 Sam Hauser BOS 10.3 3.5 1.5
7 Derik Queen NO 10.0 6.1 2.7
8 Nikola Vucevic BOS 9.1 5.7 1.9
9 Bryce McGowens NO 9.1 2.8 1.4
10 Jordan Poole NO 9.0 2.5 2.7
11 Baylor Scheierman BOS 8.4 3.3 1.9
12 Luka Garza BOS 8.3 4.1 0.9
13 Jordan Walsh BOS 6.4 3.2 1.0
14 Jordan Hawkins NO 6.0 1.7 1.0
15 Micah Peavy NO 4.4 1.8 1.0
16 Kevon Looney NO 4.2 5.9 1.4
17 DeAndre Jordan NO 3.7 5.4 0.8
18 Hunter Dickinson NO 3.7 2.1 0.7
19 Trey Alexander NO 3.5 1.3 0.9
20 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.4 1.0 0.6
21 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 2.8 2.0 0.5
22 John Tonje BOS 1.8 0.8 0.3
23 Amari Williams BOS 1.8 1.6 0.5
24 Max Shulga BOS 1.8 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.