NBA games

CLE @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
102–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE22261737102
ATL27343528124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home ATL
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 25 20 0 5
Tyrese Proctor 12 15 1 4
Jaylon Tyson S 24 15 4 3
Evan Mobley S 22 10 6 1
Dennis Schroder 16 7 2 4
Tristan Enaruna 12 7 1 1
Craig Porter Jr. 17 6 5 3
Riley Minix 8 4 0 0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 19 4 5 1
Larry Nance Jr. 16 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 24 29 4 4
Jalen Johnson S 25 18 9 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 32 18 1 1
Jonathan Kuminga 23 15 5 1
Dyson Daniels S 30 13 10 12
Corey Kispert 9 8 0 1
Tony Bradley 9 7 2 0
Mouhamed Gueye 12 5 3 1
Zaccharie Risacher 19 4 4 1
Gabe Vincent 14 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 6-foot layup (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
2 CJ McCollum ATL
14%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
12%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
6 James Harden CLE
10%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE
9%
9 Dean Wade CLE
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
26%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.6 3.9 4.4
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.8 9.1 7.0
3 James Harden CLE 22.2 4.6 7.6
4 Evan Mobley CLE 20.0 10.4 3.7
5 CJ McCollum ATL 19.4 3.6 5.6
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.7 7.2 4.8
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.0 6.3 2.9
8 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 10.5 3.8 1.9
9 Max Strus CLE 10.5 5.1 2.0
10 Jaylon Tyson CLE 9.9 3.0 1.8
11 Keon Ellis CLE 9.8 2.7 1.6
12 Dennis Schroder CLE 8.1 2.5 3.9
13 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 6.9 2.8 0.6
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.4 3.6 1.2
15 Corey Kispert ATL 5.7 1.7 1.1
16 Gabe Vincent ATL 5.1 1.6 1.8
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.1 3.3 2.7
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.0 3.5 1.2
19 Asa Newell ATL 3.9 1.8 0.6
20 Buddy Hield ATL 3.8 1.3 1.1
21 Tyrese Proctor CLE 3.8 1.1 0.9
22 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.6 2.1 0.8
23 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.6 2.2 0.6
24 Tony Bradley ATL 3.4 3.0 0.5
25 Tristan Enaruna CLE 2.7 1.2 0.5
26 Riley Minix CLE 2.5 1.3 0.8
27 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.3 0.7 0.5
28 Olivier Sarr CLE 2.1 1.5 0.4
29 Christian Koloko ATL 2.1 1.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.